{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a950622-01e4-4417-ab06-16dac561f4ef", "symbol": "MX1", "name": "Micro-X Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.563, "architecture_energy": 67.996, "architecture_maturity": 83.418, "architecture_confidence": 94.967, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.24, "rotation_up": 25.1, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 53.63, "rotation_down": 63.73, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.029133, 0.031455, 0.037024, 0.043419 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.028, "trend_reference": 0.053933, "distance_from_trend": -0.480841, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.080656, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.652845, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -61.91868, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.674419, "excess_performance": -0.738124, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.480841, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.257798, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.652845, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.276694, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.619187, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.340834, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.674419, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.674674, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4648471, "relative_activity": 2.403072, "balance": 0.674674, "dry_up": 1.587823, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.190934, "annualized_volatility": 0.554198, "from_high_reference": -0.766667, "from_low_reference": 0.037037 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.053933, "fair_value_reference": 0.080656, "structural_low": 0.027, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.074324, "positive_rate": 0.263158, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": -0.063863, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.680851, "worst_return": -0.304348, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.060185, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.110825, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.909091, "worst_return": -0.357143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.166667, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.111191, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.929825, "worst_return": -0.44, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.214286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117021, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.184698, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053846, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035294, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05814, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.6, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.11, "volume": 512740, "typical_volume": 2375562.75, "trend": 0.111067, "fair_value": 0.218843, "relative_strength": -10.593563, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", 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0.033, "volume": 1600376, "typical_volume": 1667513.2, "trend": 0.060433, "fair_value": 0.082258, "relative_strength": -54.527214, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.999051, "energy": 72.506373, "activity_lines": [ 0.0338, 0.035982, 0.042024, 0.049209 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.03, "volume": 4141849, "typical_volume": 1798145.25, "trend": 0.058367, "fair_value": 0.081681, "relative_strength": -58.148081, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.739888, "energy": 68.710283, "activity_lines": [ 0.032333, 0.034473, 0.040338, 0.047245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.027, "volume": 1895159, "typical_volume": 1778421.75, "trend": 0.055933, "fair_value": 0.081117, "relative_strength": -62.643819, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.80139, "energy": 71.380956, "activity_lines": [ 0.0304, 0.032709, 0.038543, 0.045222 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.028, "volume": 4648471, "typical_volume": 1934387.1, "trend": 0.053933, "fair_value": 0.080656, "relative_strength": -61.91868, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.562985, "energy": 67.996162, "activity_lines": [ 0.029133, 0.031455, 0.037024, 0.043419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }