{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a9bb102-c1b8-46b6-bb31-8dcc39d811c0", "symbol": "228790", "name": "Mirae Asset Tiger Cosmetics ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.596, "architecture_energy": 51.663, "architecture_maturity": 21.118, "architecture_confidence": 56.41, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.11, "rotation_up": 67.85, "upward_expansion": 80.8, "deceleration": 49.79, "rotation_down": 10.04, "downward_expansion": 7.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 3846.333333, 3722.272727, 3689.516535, 3677.345151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4165.0, "trend_reference": 3656.814315, "distance_from_trend": 0.13897, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3103.44714, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.342056, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.727828, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.165813, "excess_performance": -0.064016, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.13897, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021697, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.342056, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007842, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107278, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.335057, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.165813, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.659183, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27702608, "relative_activity": 1.706472, "balance": 0.659183, "dry_up": 1.434731, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079361, "annualized_volatility": 0.365403, "from_high_reference": -0.029945, "from_low_reference": 0.363279 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3656.814315, "fair_value_reference": 3103.44714, "structural_low": 3055.133158, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.039216, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.002276, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.128726, "worst_return": -0.108438, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042946, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.057795, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.456973, "worst_return": -0.167675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.082906, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000395, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.415976, "worst_return": -0.197138, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 3846.333333, 3722.272727, 3689.516535, 3677.345151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }