{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a9c390a-a3bd-49d7-8d5b-15f7f4a6a6f0", "symbol": "AS", "name": "Amer Sports, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.045, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 24.216, "architecture_energy": 16.089, "architecture_maturity": 34.881, "architecture_confidence": 57.69, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.56, "rotation_up": 43.06, "upward_expansion": 40.45, "deceleration": 36.95, "rotation_down": 29.32, "downward_expansion": 17.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.712, 35.466727, 35.299857, 35.232559 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 36.84, "trend_reference": 35.559333, "distance_from_trend": 0.036015, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.629091, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.333377, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.737155, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.017862, "excess_performance": -0.143487, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036015, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004442, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.333377, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010588, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077372, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03519, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.017862, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.738742, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23605965, "relative_activity": 1.179123, "balance": 1.738742, "dry_up": 1.029583, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075329, "annualized_volatility": 0.402154, "from_high_reference": -0.138447, "from_low_reference": 0.273859 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.559333, "fair_value_reference": 27.629091, "structural_low": 30.55, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.016969, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.017265, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.089054, "worst_return": -0.016183, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.096475, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.026606, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.096475, "worst_return": 0.096475, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.115054, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126144, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003555, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072418, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033127, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041874, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.190181, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049474, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.180719, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.027902, "active": true 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"energy": 9.212821, "activity_lines": [ 35.055333, 35.048909, 34.908762, 35.252387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.44, "volume": 17199810, "typical_volume": 21194794.45, "trend": 35.830333, "fair_value": 27.447829, "relative_strength": -6.352554, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.148225, "energy": 5.488564, "activity_lines": [ 35.448, 35.308545, 35.077286, 35.287914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.92, "volume": 23588445, "typical_volume": 20216040.95, "trend": 35.682, "fair_value": 27.497615, "relative_strength": -11.865625, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.224978, "energy": 15.414193, "activity_lines": [ 34.935333, 35.102545, 35.013143, 35.164667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.51, "volume": 18054539, "typical_volume": 19833008.1, "trend": 35.615667, "fair_value": 27.558779, "relative_strength": -8.334085, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.102337, "energy": 9.121908, "activity_lines": [ 35.146667, 35.166, 35.100714, 35.15357 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.84, "volume": 23605965, "typical_volume": 20019931.65, "trend": 35.559333, "fair_value": 27.629091, "relative_strength": -7.737155, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.216322, "energy": 16.088955, "activity_lines": [ 35.712, 35.466727, 35.299857, 35.232559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }