{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "7aa0d388-b661-4cf0-a7ec-68fc5748c754",
    "symbol": "PADV",
    "name": "State Street SPDR S&P Pan Asia Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 72.319,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 76.984,
    "architecture_energy": 75.479,
    "architecture_maturity": 4.893,
    "architecture_confidence": 61.651,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 25.11,
        "rotation_up": 72.7,
        "upward_expansion": 86.82,
        "deceleration": 47.56,
        "rotation_down": 14.24,
        "downward_expansion": 20.49
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        42.348743,
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        41.597676
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 43.0,
    "trend_reference": 41.499282,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.036163,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 35.874552,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.198621,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -2.737779,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.025274,
    "excess_performance": -0.025961,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.036163,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.010779,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.198621,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.017081,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.027378,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.008636,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.025274,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.263559,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 24667,
      "relative_activity": 0.867559,
      "balance": 0.263559,
      "dry_up": 0.618347,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.015833,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.109935,
      "from_high_reference": -0.013082,
      "from_low_reference": 0.12857
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 41.499282,
      "fair_value_reference": 35.874552,
      "structural_low": 39.73,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 32,
        "median_return": 0.004762,
        "positive_rate": 0.5625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5625,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005789,
        "regime_survival": 0.71875,
        "best_return": 0.058874,
        "worst_return": -0.081322,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 13,
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        "median_excess_return": -0.012245,
        "regime_survival": 0.538462,
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        "worst_return": -0.028488,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
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        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.021454,
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 15068.95,
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        "regime": "balance",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 35.529327,
        "relative_strength": -5.778924,
        "stage": 3,
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        "energy": 28.322685,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 28833.95,
        "trend": 41.220928,
        "fair_value": 35.593963,
        "relative_strength": -4.064489,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 4.820056,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 41.308044,
        "volume": 14495,
        "typical_volume": 29062.75,
        "trend": 41.257663,
        "fair_value": 35.65816,
        "relative_strength": -4.334895,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 16.610392,
        "energy": 11.831804,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.294348,
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          41.342452,
          41.360872
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 42.216614,
        "volume": 8491,
        "typical_volume": 27883.75,
        "trend": 41.336213,
        "fair_value": 35.720044,
        "relative_strength": -3.354783,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.486456,
        "energy": 23.784808,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.561732,
          41.534738,
          41.433142,
          41.422739
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 42.472,
        "volume": 22672,
        "typical_volume": 27780.75,
        "trend": 41.424263,
        "fair_value": 35.793553,
        "relative_strength": -3.806837,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.35813,
        "energy": 50.744441,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.892804,
          41.72103,
          41.544123,
          41.496016
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 43.0,
        "volume": 24667,
        "typical_volume": 28432.65,
        "trend": 41.499282,
        "fair_value": 35.874552,
        "relative_strength": -2.737779,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.983563,
        "energy": 75.47868,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.348743,
          41.974741,
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          41.597676
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}