{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "7aa7a5a0-7f81-4130-9cf1-6f825a7c9fbc",
    "symbol": "CNR",
    "name": "Core Natural Resources, Inc.",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch",
    "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch",
    "confidence": 60.152,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -28.151,
    "architecture_energy": 16.792,
    "architecture_maturity": 37.051,
    "architecture_confidence": 79.917,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 46.67,
        "rotation_up": 26.98,
        "upward_expansion": 15.51,
        "deceleration": 42.56,
        "rotation_down": 32.42,
        "downward_expansion": 63.18
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        84.324667,
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        85.078435,
        87.248588
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 89.6,
    "trend_reference": 89.706151,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.001183,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 89.665062,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.000726,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -8.057382,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.026405,
    "excess_performance": -0.15203,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.001183,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.00403,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.000726,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.035662,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.080574,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.015476,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.026405,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.984218,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3452092,
      "relative_activity": 0.958782,
      "balance": 0.984218,
      "dry_up": 0.779307,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.080118,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.444792,
      "from_high_reference": -0.21863,
      "from_low_reference": 0.309069
    },
    "levels": {
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      "fair_value_reference": 89.665062,
      "structural_low": 77.5,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.025801,
        "positive_rate": 0.545455,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.454545,
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        "worst_return": -0.111763,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "regime_survival": 0.25,
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        "worst_return": -0.063985,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
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        "sufficient": false
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      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.264505,
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "date": "2026-04-17",
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 4159791.4,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 4259545.35,
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        "fair_value": 88.182838,
        "relative_strength": -11.867291,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -26.116642,
        "energy": 41.150252,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 4325326.75,
        "trend": 89.745187,
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        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -31.140925,
        "energy": 40.243453,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 88.44,
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        "typical_volume": 4267194.1,
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        "fair_value": 88.562416,
        "relative_strength": -7.736812,
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        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 4271297.15,
        "trend": 90.213958,
        "fair_value": 88.762566,
        "relative_strength": -0.230417,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 4277401.65,
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        "fair_value": 88.939441,
        "relative_strength": -2.141202,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 4301418.85,
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        "relative_strength": -11.823844,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
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        "direction": -56.262426,
        "energy": 25.235251,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 2762144,
        "typical_volume": 4220088.5,
        "trend": 90.694808,
        "fair_value": 89.23411,
        "relative_strength": -16.124041,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "direction": -62.487224,
        "energy": 52.511308,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 2451448,
        "typical_volume": 4194462.95,
        "trend": 90.597257,
        "fair_value": 89.36174,
        "relative_strength": -14.44008,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -57.0227,
        "energy": 62.497252,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 83.02,
        "volume": 2200698,
        "typical_volume": 4135720.05,
        "trend": 90.425629,
        "fair_value": 89.461976,
        "relative_strength": -11.727523,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -57.222295,
        "energy": 61.578799,
        "activity_lines": [
          81.847333,
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          86.529338,
          88.407522
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 83.2,
        "volume": 2506074,
        "typical_volume": 3954169.15,
        "trend": 90.253017,
        "fair_value": 89.538669,
        "relative_strength": -10.867762,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -56.349687,
        "energy": 54.012766,
        "activity_lines": [
          82.276,
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          85.9077,
          87.941353
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 79.84,
        "volume": 3064703,
        "typical_volume": 3811915.65,
        "trend": 89.924838,
        "fair_value": 89.596864,
        "relative_strength": -15.253035,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -62.151153,
        "energy": 45.814328,
        "activity_lines": [
          81.609333,
          82.826364,
          84.983214,
          87.269545
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 89.6,
        "volume": 3452092,
        "typical_volume": 3600497.0,
        "trend": 89.706151,
        "fair_value": 89.665062,
        "relative_strength": -8.057382,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -28.150896,
        "energy": 16.79178,
        "activity_lines": [
          84.324667,
          83.723455,
          85.078435,
          87.248588
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}