{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7aa8c91d-671f-4839-b5f0-a00d388c9a8d", "symbol": "DIE", "name": "Dierig Holding AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 55.345, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.557, "architecture_energy": 17.527, "architecture_maturity": 19.31, "architecture_confidence": 58.407, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.28, "rotation_up": 28.52, "upward_expansion": 11.13, "deceleration": 53.28, "rotation_down": 41.57, "downward_expansion": 45.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.06, 8.074545, 8.128162, 8.136487 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.1, "trend_reference": 8.117014, "distance_from_trend": -0.002096, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.740021, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.073229, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.859378, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.030675, "excess_performance": -0.033965, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002096, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00512, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.073229, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006485, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078594, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058852, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030675, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.626709, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3692, "relative_activity": 3.422321, "balance": 0.626709, "dry_up": 2.227475, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018391, "annualized_volatility": 0.096729, "from_high_reference": -0.051311, "from_low_reference": 0.043558 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.117014, "fair_value_reference": 8.740021, "structural_low": 7.810417, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.003086, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.007949, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.0098, "worst_return": -0.036269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.0463, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.061781, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.01227, "worst_return": -0.098445, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.0514, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.078473, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.0514, "worst_return": -0.0514, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"mixed", "direction": -21.441431, "energy": 26.141477, "activity_lines": [ 8.083333, 8.109675, 8.165971, 8.143113 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.2, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 643.0, "trend": 8.099573, "fair_value": 8.7879, "relative_strength": -1.874038, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.322663, "energy": 14.537383, "activity_lines": [ 8.12, 8.118956, 8.16801, 8.150326 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.05, "volume": 53, "typical_volume": 616.0, "trend": 8.105942, "fair_value": 8.772443, "relative_strength": -4.491186, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.580196, "energy": 14.737982, "activity_lines": [ 8.1, 8.101818, 8.155757, 8.147127 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.95, "volume": 5866, "typical_volume": 894.2, "trend": 8.108978, "fair_value": 8.755752, "relative_strength": -7.35206, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.418333, "energy": 29.125719, "activity_lines": [ 8.05, 8.072727, 8.134456, 8.137067 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.1, "volume": 3692, "typical_volume": 1078.8, "trend": 8.117014, "fair_value": 8.740021, "relative_strength": -7.859378, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.557476, "energy": 17.526831, "activity_lines": [ 8.06, 8.074545, 8.128162, 8.136487 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }