{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7aaa95ab-ba37-4437-bb2e-0f4603bffef6", "symbol": "002545", "name": "Qingdao East Steel Tower Stock Co.Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.153, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.876, "architecture_energy": 36.474, "architecture_maturity": 65.799, "architecture_confidence": 58.616, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.26, "rotation_up": 25.99, "upward_expansion": 17.35, "deceleration": 66.69, "rotation_down": 40.17, "downward_expansion": 67.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.997582, 17.726146, 19.295394, 20.622252 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.469999, "trend_reference": 22.283449, "distance_from_trend": -0.171134, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.94816, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.687041, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.984367, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.336328, "excess_performance": -0.343727, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.171134, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010053, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.687041, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.84204, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049844, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.347874, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.336328, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.385374, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 123646443, "relative_activity": 1.285619, "balance": 0.385374, "dry_up": 1.350233, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124825, "annualized_volatility": 0.53987, "from_high_reference": -0.402265, "from_low_reference": 0.929989 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.283449, "fair_value_reference": 10.94816, "structural_low": 15.262296, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.000716, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.002745, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.139157, "worst_return": -0.126888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.009901, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.000847, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.070494, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.030902, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003145, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.155844, "worst_return": -0.119839, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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22.210782, "fair_value": 10.721103, "relative_strength": -15.766446, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.845371, "energy": 90.2399, "activity_lines": [ 16.334074, 17.863972, 20.016967, 21.330683 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.559999, "volume": 170594770, "typical_volume": 95660155.8, "trend": 22.257116, "fair_value": 10.797408, "relative_strength": 0.480266, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.027686, "energy": 61.877998, "activity_lines": [ 16.92651, 17.714272, 19.726808, 21.095149 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.74, "volume": 140732427, "typical_volume": 96664346.4, "trend": 22.282782, "fair_value": 10.874095, "relative_strength": 2.195156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.073257, "energy": 49.100159, "activity_lines": [ 17.572945, 17.704573, 19.503363, 20.868238 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.469999, "volume": 123646443, "typical_volume": 96176575.6, "trend": 22.283449, "fair_value": 10.94816, "relative_strength": -4.984367, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.875852, "energy": 36.474014, "activity_lines": [ 17.997582, 17.726146, 19.295394, 20.622252 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }