{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ab59c39-80d2-47ae-a317-2c85c141d64d", "symbol": "002206", "name": "Zhejiang Hailide New Material Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.882, "architecture_energy": 42.917, "architecture_maturity": 54.792, "architecture_confidence": 86.023, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.22, "rotation_up": 27.19, "upward_expansion": 6.67, "deceleration": 59.88, "rotation_down": 43.98, "downward_expansion": 77.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.284667, 5.294, 5.410356, 5.625629 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.38, "trend_reference": 5.925253, "distance_from_trend": -0.092022, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.795664, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.121847, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.550114, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.247008, "excess_performance": -0.254407, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092022, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014796, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.121847, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12985, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115501, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047374, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.247008, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.519992, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62530540, "relative_activity": 1.143355, "balance": 0.519992, "dry_up": 0.980915, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051823, "annualized_volatility": 0.255006, "from_high_reference": -0.263918, "from_low_reference": 0.061144 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.925253, "fair_value_reference": 4.795664, "structural_low": 5.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.029907, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.007396, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.133568, "worst_return": -0.164051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.024254, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019495, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.186495, "worst_return": -0.099626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.009844, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.02494, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.167539, "worst_return": -0.18837, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"gate": "down", "direction": -70.673393, "energy": 56.208048, "activity_lines": [ 5.279333, 5.311179, 5.519575, 5.753709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.11, "volume": 54058321, "typical_volume": 60026343.7, "trend": 5.943483, "fair_value": 4.790038, "relative_strength": -13.545191, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.234465, "energy": 57.677326, "activity_lines": [ 5.211333, 5.265273, 5.458655, 5.699028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.36, "volume": 52765203, "typical_volume": 56181347.65, "trend": 5.934195, "fair_value": 4.79296, "relative_strength": -7.616567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.219044, "energy": 50.843478, "activity_lines": [ 5.246, 5.276364, 5.430499, 5.661384 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.38, "volume": 62530540, "typical_volume": 54690376.15, "trend": 5.925253, "fair_value": 4.795664, "relative_strength": -11.550114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.881735, "energy": 42.916892, "activity_lines": [ 5.284667, 5.294, 5.410356, 5.625629 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }