{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ab7fb44-5dfb-4ba8-b2c6-6ae728897a7f", "symbol": "XMD", "name": "iShares S&P/TSX Completion Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.47, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.443, "architecture_energy": 18.608, "architecture_maturity": 18.791, "architecture_confidence": 49.517, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.0, "rotation_up": 39.5, "upward_expansion": 58.75, "deceleration": 57.9, "rotation_down": 26.01, "downward_expansion": 18.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.493999, 58.326436, 58.438601, 58.306691 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 60.48, "trend_reference": 58.16645, "distance_from_trend": 0.039775, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.453187, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.458995, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.302391, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.060723, "excess_performance": -0.059698, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039775, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036437, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.458995, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065732, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013024, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065883, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060723, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.255573, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 103200, "relative_activity": 0.414017, "balance": 1.255573, "dry_up": 0.696748, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029128, "annualized_volatility": 0.232039, "from_high_reference": -0.033601, "from_low_reference": 0.377483 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.16645, "fair_value_reference": 41.453187, "structural_low": 52.828886, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.003147, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.000779, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.062276, "worst_return": -0.044168, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.05828, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.01851, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.068078, "worst_return": 0.044518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.099764, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.031749, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.212827, "worst_return": -0.119967, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002065, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016254, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050635, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016099, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018708, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", 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58.257433, 58.160849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.169998, "volume": 219200, "typical_volume": 251795.0, "trend": 57.872755, "fair_value": 41.085127, "relative_strength": -2.235148, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.27749, "energy": 9.289004, "activity_lines": [ 57.882666, 58.118149, 58.275113, 58.18931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.209999, "volume": 187600, "typical_volume": 253010.0, "trend": 57.997848, "fair_value": 41.258861, "relative_strength": -3.497088, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.093421, "energy": 21.311071, "activity_lines": [ 57.621999, 57.912688, 58.202432, 58.146552 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.48, "volume": 103200, "typical_volume": 249265.0, "trend": 58.16645, "fair_value": 41.453187, "relative_strength": -1.302391, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.44308, "energy": 18.607722, "activity_lines": [ 58.493999, 58.326436, 58.438601, 58.306691 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }