{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ab993ae-ea3c-4346-999a-2b1c693f8f05", "symbol": "MTDR", "name": "Matador Resources Company", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 68.149, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.154, "architecture_energy": 26.501, "architecture_maturity": 12.547, "architecture_confidence": 67.18, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.85, "rotation_up": 29.19, "upward_expansion": 10.3, "deceleration": 55.19, "rotation_down": 45.54, "downward_expansion": 49.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.415333, 50.756, 52.807675, 53.765579 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 49.06, "trend_reference": 53.289063, "distance_from_trend": -0.079361, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.849799, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.053805, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.669816, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.050756, "excess_performance": -0.074869, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079361, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06418, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.053805, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126506, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106698, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138469, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.050756, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.683064, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11837541, "relative_activity": 1.336625, "balance": 0.683064, "dry_up": 1.183978, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086629, "annualized_volatility": 0.423814, "from_high_reference": -0.261013, "from_low_reference": 0.352313 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.289063, "fair_value_reference": 51.849799, "structural_low": 44.865984, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.01041, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.016758, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.396607, "worst_return": -0.254821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.025607, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.016096, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.487001, "worst_return": -0.126768, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.218409, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.160857, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.568047, "worst_return": -0.109562, "sufficient": false }, { 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"2026-07-10", "close": 51.34, "volume": 8358747, "typical_volume": 9018508.65, "trend": 52.034571, "fair_value": 51.908463, "relative_strength": -5.12992, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.783278, "energy": 43.790825, "activity_lines": [ 50.686, 52.064545, 54.720518, 54.20418 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.8, "volume": 6673428, "typical_volume": 8755698.7, "trend": 52.476666, "fair_value": 51.917595, "relative_strength": 1.189222, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.197261, "energy": 21.957699, "activity_lines": [ 51.617333, 52.129273, 54.508883, 54.318079 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.81, "volume": 9195025, "typical_volume": 8587259.5, "trend": 52.804632, "fair_value": 51.919949, "relative_strength": -3.625775, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.960435, "energy": 21.68089, "activity_lines": [ 51.568667, 51.676909, 53.999408, 54.210552 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.89, "volume": 14236621, "typical_volume": 8781551.35, "trend": 53.042439, "fair_value": 51.888802, "relative_strength": -6.177478, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.601723, "energy": 21.36234, "activity_lines": [ 51.13, 51.230545, 53.426744, 54.022511 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.06, "volume": 11837541, "typical_volume": 8856289.8, "trend": 53.289063, "fair_value": 51.849799, "relative_strength": -10.669816, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.15376, "energy": 26.500904, "activity_lines": [ 50.415333, 50.756, 52.807675, 53.765579 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }