{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7abc821a-17ab-461e-baa3-1675cf3c88d6", "symbol": "POLB", "name": "Poolbeg Pharma PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.806, "architecture_energy": 42.425, "architecture_maturity": 58.288, "architecture_confidence": 68.277, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.89, "rotation_up": 39.87, "upward_expansion": 71.82, "deceleration": 76.43, "rotation_down": 26.47, "downward_expansion": 5.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0707, 0.070109, 0.06515, 0.059981 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.083, "trend_reference": 0.054238, "distance_from_trend": 0.530283, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.067751, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.225081, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 64.020984, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.804348, "excess_performance": 0.753113, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.530283, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.254404, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.225081, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.590739, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.64021, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.553566, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.804348, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.082927, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19632602, "relative_activity": 2.195834, "balance": 2.082927, "dry_up": 2.084732, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128424, "annualized_volatility": 0.756424, "from_high_reference": -0.077778, "from_low_reference": 2.32 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.054238, "fair_value_reference": 0.067751, "structural_low": 0.04, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.016736, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.007962, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.144737, "worst_return": -0.209877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.058548, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011322, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.422535, "worst_return": -0.305439, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.138724, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.239442, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.295775, "worst_return": -0.573222, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.774059, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.883408, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.774059, "worst_return": -0.774059, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-05-26", "end": "2023-06-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.176056, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-16", "end": "2023-08-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.21978, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-11", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.354839, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112971, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.179487, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.578313, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.363636, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.101266, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.15493, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096154, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051282, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.349593, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.0785, "volume": 7323074, "typical_volume": 3406957.75, "trend": 0.08065, "fair_value": 0.077333, "relative_strength": 7.98017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.024525, 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"direction": 60.908072, "energy": 52.121188, "activity_lines": [ 0.070367, 0.069167, 0.06021, 0.055712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0615, "volume": 41174576, "typical_volume": 7876569.45, "trend": 0.051305, "fair_value": 0.06777, "relative_strength": 30.691217, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.354017, "energy": 32.817653, "activity_lines": [ 0.066933, 0.068624, 0.060938, 0.056414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0615, "volume": 7433978, "typical_volume": 8097146.05, "trend": 0.051988, "fair_value": 0.067693, "relative_strength": 27.629054, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.351598, "energy": 25.255421, "activity_lines": [ 0.064533, 0.067753, 0.061588, 0.057072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.067, "volume": 6315885, "typical_volume": 8244881.7, "trend": 0.052922, "fair_value": 0.067667, "relative_strength": 35.50488, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.774561, "energy": 22.536469, "activity_lines": [ 0.064933, 0.067627, 0.062668, 0.05804 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.083, "volume": 19632602, "typical_volume": 8940841.4, "trend": 0.054238, "fair_value": 0.067751, "relative_strength": 64.020984, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.805695, "energy": 42.424731, "activity_lines": [ 0.0707, 0.070109, 0.06515, 0.059981 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }