{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7abe5f39-2acd-4ea2-9ccb-800a721d9640", "symbol": "9622", "name": "Shmoh Almadi Co.", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.916, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.427, "architecture_energy": 79.412, "architecture_maturity": 10.497, "architecture_confidence": 90.886, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.77, "rotation_up": 11.61, "upward_expansion": 19.0, "deceleration": 39.33, "rotation_down": 67.51, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.87, 8.97, 9.175238, 9.362237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.0, "trend_reference": 9.536, "distance_from_trend": -0.056208, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.466835, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.278085, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.208712, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.096386, "excess_performance": -0.064556, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056208, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037772, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.278085, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015504, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132087, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07605, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.096386, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.031479, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 726, "relative_activity": 0.031927, "balance": 0.031479, "dry_up": 0.235188, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024103, "annualized_volatility": 0.220182, "from_high_reference": -0.424333, "from_low_reference": 0.076555 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.536, "fair_value_reference": 12.466835, "structural_low": 8.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051402, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-17", "close": 20.909552, "volume": 400963, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-24", "close": 22.199551, "volume": 416553, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 21.121344, 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null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 9.25, "volume": 3574, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 9.25, "volume": 293, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.25, "volume": 42, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.56, "volume": 17405, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.56, "volume": 303, "typical_volume": 22582.85, "trend": 9.531, "fair_value": 12.553505, "relative_strength": -18.953032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.564919, "energy": 79.685344, "activity_lines": [ 8.836, 8.998, 9.265905, 9.431075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.0, "volume": 2958, "typical_volume": 22729.55, "trend": 9.536, "fair_value": 12.509635, "relative_strength": -12.103683, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.452818, "energy": 61.768236, "activity_lines": [ 8.844667, 8.982182, 9.21819, 9.396817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.0, "volume": 726, "typical_volume": 22739.25, "trend": 9.536, "fair_value": 12.466835, "relative_strength": -13.208712, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.427402, "energy": 79.41224, "activity_lines": [ 8.87, 8.97, 9.175238, 9.362237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }