{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ac214bf-6a3e-445f-a8bf-419fa495696d", "symbol": "HSPG", "name": "H\u00f8land og Setskog Sparebank", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.983, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.164, "architecture_energy": 47.169, "architecture_maturity": 4.391, "architecture_confidence": 59.128, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.01, "rotation_up": 21.86, "upward_expansion": 20.53, "deceleration": 41.17, "rotation_down": 59.58, "downward_expansion": 57.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 147.846668, 149.777456, 152.277619, 153.088874 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 152.0, "trend_reference": 152.746563, "distance_from_trend": -0.004888, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 135.764293, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.119587, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.10269, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.046022, "excess_performance": -0.078972, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004888, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005339, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.119587, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091212, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.131027, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0116, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.046022, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.288754, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1133, "relative_activity": 1.639297, "balance": 1.288754, "dry_up": 1.105404, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049332, "annualized_volatility": 0.298516, "from_high_reference": -0.093045, "from_low_reference": 0.104486 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 152.746563, "fair_value_reference": 135.764293, "structural_low": 137.620623, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.011475, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01521, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.135714, "worst_return": -0.047619, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.014765, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.020197, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.006803, "worst_return": -0.022727, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.071506, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.09066, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.068182, "worst_return": -0.07483, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.328082, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011836, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000234, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108434, "active": false }, { "regime": 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154.906092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 150.0, "volume": 152, "typical_volume": 900.65, "trend": 153.591813, "fair_value": 134.983318, "relative_strength": -12.312086, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.685777, "energy": 8.956234, "activity_lines": [ 154.266667, 154.068, 155.44644, 154.64936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 145.300003, "volume": 1001, "typical_volume": 936.75, "trend": 153.155459, "fair_value": 135.165069, "relative_strength": -15.635133, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.822032, "energy": 19.387705, "activity_lines": [ 151.200001, 152.258182, 154.433544, 154.114404 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 145.300003, "volume": 921, "typical_volume": 980.45, "trend": 152.719105, "fair_value": 135.352331, "relative_strength": -17.220465, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.311752, "energy": 37.571281, "activity_lines": [ 148.580002, 150.733819, 153.466839, 153.607601 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 145.300003, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 849.9, "trend": 152.621167, "fair_value": 135.539594, "relative_strength": -17.106855, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.852228, "energy": 50.969098, "activity_lines": [ 146.706669, 149.476729, 152.541619, 153.128949 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 152.0, "volume": 1133, "typical_volume": 691.15, "trend": 152.746563, "fair_value": 135.764293, "relative_strength": -13.10269, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.163914, "energy": 47.16916, "activity_lines": [ 147.846668, 149.777456, 152.277619, 153.088874 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }