{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ac35348-bb14-415b-a5b9-b9b06d61587b", "symbol": "ENTR", "name": "L&G New Energy Commodities ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.201, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.033, "architecture_energy": 12.608, "architecture_maturity": 24.441, "architecture_confidence": 80.89, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.87, "rotation_up": 30.88, "upward_expansion": 56.85, "deceleration": 86.19, "rotation_down": 22.1, "downward_expansion": 13.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.226133, 12.207964, 12.274219, 12.191265 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 12.236, "trend_reference": 12.0552, "distance_from_trend": 0.014998, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.248495, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.193931, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.162936, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.070329, "excess_performance": -0.100563, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014998, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051588, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.193931, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044408, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061629, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105469, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070329, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.911569, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18811, "relative_activity": 6.899321, "balance": 4.911569, "dry_up": 2.116725, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036224, "annualized_volatility": 0.143532, "from_high_reference": -0.128242, "from_low_reference": 0.345355 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.0552, "fair_value_reference": 10.248495, "structural_low": 10.854, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.035256, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.008979, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.037809, "worst_return": 0.000825, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.098557, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.01089, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.141493, "worst_return": 0.055622, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.240304, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.086234, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.240304, "worst_return": 0.240304, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010954, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005652, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.099906, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020537, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019451, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009404, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-04-26", "close": 9.63, "volume": 7020, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-03", "close": 9.674, "volume": 1460, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-10", "close": 9.711, "volume": 20005, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.132, "volume": 450, "typical_volume": 1875.15, "trend": 12.021667, "fair_value": 10.231793, "relative_strength": -4.149573, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.022433, "energy": 7.356587, "activity_lines": [ 12.2132, 12.214473, 12.273781, 12.177437 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.236, "volume": 18811, "typical_volume": 2726.5, "trend": 12.0552, "fair_value": 10.248495, "relative_strength": -6.162936, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.033252, "energy": 12.608258, "activity_lines": [ 12.226133, 12.207964, 12.274219, 12.191265 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }