{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ac5ec3f-3168-41dc-861e-c1db54e98ac6", "symbol": "BALCO", "name": "Balco Group AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 73.784, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.126, "architecture_energy": 14.447, "architecture_maturity": 10.267, "architecture_confidence": 66.466, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.97, "rotation_up": 24.54, "upward_expansion": 18.79, "deceleration": 38.37, "rotation_down": 29.32, "downward_expansion": 52.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.66, 14.600909, 14.66381, 14.827634 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 14.95, "trend_reference": 15.188333, "distance_from_trend": -0.015692, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.379903, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.52358, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.417228, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.133333, "excess_performance": -0.194828, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015692, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060709, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.52358, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025898, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.254172, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073356, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.133333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.501433, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53334, "relative_activity": 0.452243, "balance": 2.501433, "dry_up": 1.344528, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056599, "annualized_volatility": 0.274037, "from_high_reference": -0.456364, "from_low_reference": 0.091241 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.188333, "fair_value_reference": 31.379903, "structural_low": 13.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.033457, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": -0.019899, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.123147, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.080047, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.128272, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.0425, "worst_return": -0.403646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.136067, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.08531, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.021665, "worst_return": -0.48574, "sufficient": true }, { 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054388, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040449, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069767, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039702, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048327, 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14.762619, 15.046667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.15, "volume": 214114, "typical_volume": 285777.2, "trend": 15.46, "fair_value": 31.913778, "relative_strength": -29.194517, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.761118, "energy": 30.55904, "activity_lines": [ 14.463333, 14.51, 14.689524, 14.953011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.5, "volume": 276099, "typical_volume": 297699.9, "trend": 15.338333, "fair_value": 31.731289, "relative_strength": -27.450143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.084786, "energy": 26.317892, "activity_lines": [ 14.463333, 14.503636, 14.658333, 14.891075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.65, "volume": 90706, "typical_volume": 299356.35, "trend": 15.245, "fair_value": 31.557307, "relative_strength": -26.601866, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.298699, "energy": 23.439514, "activity_lines": [ 14.516667, 14.524545, 14.646905, 14.846667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.95, "volume": 53334, "typical_volume": 117932.25, "trend": 15.188333, "fair_value": 31.379903, "relative_strength": -25.417228, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.125755, "energy": 14.447473, "activity_lines": [ 14.66, 14.600909, 14.66381, 14.827634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }