{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7acfdd3a-d2b0-43a0-9af1-6104584f0c29", "symbol": "VLY", "name": "Valley National Bancorp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.63, "architecture_energy": 37.605, "architecture_maturity": 74.354, "architecture_confidence": 65.93, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.67, "rotation_up": 45.79, "upward_expansion": 68.68, "deceleration": 61.99, "rotation_down": 25.19, "downward_expansion": 16.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.498, 14.511477, 14.147938, 13.750243 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.55, "trend_reference": 13.264356, "distance_from_trend": 0.096925, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.45119, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.539489, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.136129, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.079442, "excess_performance": -0.108012, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096925, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086934, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.539489, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041299, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.051361, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022909, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079442, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.497578, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33549205, "relative_activity": 1.064384, "balance": 1.497578, "dry_up": 1.174216, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048846, "annualized_volatility": 0.219701, "from_high_reference": -0.042763, "from_low_reference": 0.6296 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.264356, "fair_value_reference": 9.45119, "structural_low": 11.362535, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.02809, "positive_rate": 0.695652, "directional_follow_through": 0.695652, "median_excess_return": 0.015691, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.1425, "worst_return": -0.13355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.009778, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.006503, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.311046, "worst_return": -0.191522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.075978, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.033008, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.229246, "worst_return": -0.404519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 14.707333, 14.428524, 13.883859, 13.496375 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.34, "volume": 46663400, "typical_volume": 33058823.65, "trend": 13.079395, "fair_value": 9.377571, "relative_strength": 10.496039, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.320091, "energy": 52.465009, "activity_lines": [ 14.621333, 14.469878, 13.978691, 13.583277 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.29, "volume": 32534989, "typical_volume": 32691502.3, "trend": 13.172622, "fair_value": 9.412905, "relative_strength": 8.986211, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.400288, "energy": 45.048456, "activity_lines": [ 14.502, 14.474709, 14.057171, 13.66138 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.55, "volume": 33549205, "typical_volume": 31519835.85, "trend": 13.264356, "fair_value": 9.45119, "relative_strength": 5.136129, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.630193, "energy": 37.605309, "activity_lines": [ 14.498, 14.511477, 14.147938, 13.750243 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }