{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ad0954f-8f15-4cb5-9c1f-7d179bce343f", "symbol": "TFI", "name": "TF1 SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 75.296, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 36.335, "architecture_energy": 49.959, "architecture_maturity": 4.581, "architecture_confidence": 45.722, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.25, "rotation_up": 60.67, "upward_expansion": 58.19, "deceleration": 24.49, "rotation_down": 19.08, "downward_expansion": 18.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.937333, 6.861273, 6.817252, 6.771134 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.005, "trend_reference": 6.786087, "distance_from_trend": 0.032259, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.844398, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.023465, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.430436, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.053039, "excess_performance": -0.10635, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032259, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030272, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.023465, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020383, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084304, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017844, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.053039, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.243117, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1248008, "relative_activity": 1.097868, "balance": 1.243117, "dry_up": 1.05594, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030528, "annualized_volatility": 0.196562, "from_high_reference": -0.15062, "from_low_reference": 0.134811 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.786087, "fair_value_reference": 6.844398, "structural_low": 6.172832, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.032454, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.006096, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.045018, "worst_return": -0.077985, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.031102, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.047417, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.130377, "worst_return": -0.083995, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.072751, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.034858, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.103954, "worst_return": -0.05145, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.042466, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069028, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.007345, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007968, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.252386, "energy": 41.589185, "activity_lines": [ 6.881333, 6.825636, 6.78942, 6.758188 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.005, "volume": 1248008, "typical_volume": 1136756.1, "trend": 6.786087, "fair_value": 6.844398, "relative_strength": -8.430436, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.335381, "energy": 49.959409, "activity_lines": [ 6.937333, 6.861273, 6.817252, 6.771134 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }