{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ad120f2-5767-48a7-8e41-066777585092", "symbol": "EHLS", "name": "EVEN HERD LONG SHORT ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.452, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.318, "architecture_energy": 20.011, "architecture_maturity": 34.335, "architecture_confidence": 52.63, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.63, "rotation_up": 15.42, "upward_expansion": 19.42, "deceleration": 64.8, "rotation_down": 54.13, "downward_expansion": 35.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.0116, 26.183527, 26.406444, 26.243903 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 26.0989, "trend_reference": 26.012577, "distance_from_trend": 0.003319, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.698805, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.149792, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.950665, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.029234, "excess_performance": -0.15822, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003319, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038866, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.149792, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056473, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.079507, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021163, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.029234, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.26719, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22962, "relative_activity": 1.702825, "balance": 5.26719, "dry_up": 0.586741, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028279, "annualized_volatility": 0.124807, "from_high_reference": -0.053012, "from_low_reference": 0.205492 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.012577, "fair_value_reference": 22.698805, "structural_low": 24.2062, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.01924, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052874, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.061305, "worst_return": -0.022824, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.065961, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.189896, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.065961, "worst_return": 0.065961, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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22.557151, "relative_strength": -5.91624, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.342391, "energy": 22.767193, "activity_lines": [ 26.5916, 26.740262, 26.482109, 26.167562 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.345, "volume": 2628, "typical_volume": 16283.95, "trend": 25.73407, "fair_value": 22.588982, "relative_strength": -7.839127, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.446499, "energy": 20.29607, "activity_lines": [ 26.48808, 26.659155, 26.500537, 26.213618 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.8203, "volume": 3507, "typical_volume": 15216.6, "trend": 25.813367, "fair_value": 22.615909, "relative_strength": -5.610438, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.332015, "energy": 15.690396, "activity_lines": [ 26.2242, 26.486691, 26.466948, 26.219181 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.0861, "volume": 2505, "typical_volume": 13557.1, "trend": 25.888737, "fair_value": 22.644589, "relative_strength": -3.046545, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.255102, "energy": 15.194875, "activity_lines": [ 26.134813, 26.381031, 26.45927, 26.236777 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.8589, "volume": 2674, "typical_volume": 12902.5, "trend": 25.958607, "fair_value": 22.670935, "relative_strength": -4.298915, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.686711, "energy": 15.326392, "activity_lines": [ 26.016847, 26.248769, 26.423886, 26.234852 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.0989, "volume": 22962, "typical_volume": 13484.65, "trend": 26.012577, "fair_value": 22.698805, "relative_strength": -7.950665, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.318009, "energy": 20.010769, "activity_lines": [ 26.0116, 26.183527, 26.406444, 26.243903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }