{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ad56344-d3d8-4b42-9046-7015a49f2109", "symbol": "BAVA", "name": "Bavarian Nordic A/S", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.273, "architecture_energy": 55.707, "architecture_maturity": 19.201, "architecture_confidence": 94.404, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.48, "rotation_up": 16.95, "upward_expansion": 13.58, "deceleration": 37.3, "rotation_down": 59.21, "downward_expansion": 82.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.790666, 24.069454, 24.510571, 24.800064 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.559999, "trend_reference": 25.198333, "distance_from_trend": -0.065018, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.794455, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.049788, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.879722, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.091049, "excess_performance": -0.265296, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065018, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013365, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.049788, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069449, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.288797, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082166, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.091049, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.555729, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.555729, "dry_up": 2.195609, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047016, "annualized_volatility": 0.250654, "from_high_reference": -0.275523, "from_low_reference": 0.015517 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.198333, "fair_value_reference": 24.794455, "structural_low": 23.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.029311, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.024321, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.141822, "worst_return": -0.137885, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.002625, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.086469, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.226078, "worst_return": -0.229565, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.065001, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.240005, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.055386, "worst_return": -0.074616, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.018717, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.428269, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.018717, "worst_return": 0.018717, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.243307, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031879, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038536, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.114209, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023083, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.340589, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028293, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03793, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00436, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049329, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.009374, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122663, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015873, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 19.120001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, 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"2026-07-10", "close": 24.559999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 56.2, "trend": 25.455667, "fair_value": 24.737853, "relative_strength": -27.148484, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.222377, "energy": 35.381892, "activity_lines": [ 24.548, 24.639273, 24.981667, 25.198667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.68, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 56.2, "trend": 25.433667, "fair_value": 24.732147, "relative_strength": -24.958449, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.200941, "energy": 19.670419, "activity_lines": [ 24.632, 24.612, 24.934047, 25.148624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.42, "volume": 167, "typical_volume": 64.55, "trend": 25.369667, "fair_value": 24.758654, "relative_strength": -28.949716, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.22346, "energy": 32.629736, "activity_lines": [ 24.296, 24.367636, 24.774762, 25.01871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.719999, "volume": 713, "typical_volume": 100.2, "trend": 25.299333, "fair_value": 24.782596, "relative_strength": -27.136331, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.647124, "energy": 42.028873, "activity_lines": [ 24.062666, 24.209091, 24.648809, 24.912279 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.559999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 100.2, "trend": 25.198333, "fair_value": 24.794455, "relative_strength": -28.879722, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.273177, "energy": 55.707387, "activity_lines": [ 23.790666, 24.069454, 24.510571, 24.800064 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }