{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ad9d9cb-aa94-40d9-9927-0a76973cd0c2", "symbol": "1416", "name": "Kwong Fong Industries Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 63.053, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 48.775, "architecture_energy": 38.177, "architecture_maturity": 8.452, "architecture_confidence": 48.427, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.87, "rotation_up": 56.8, "upward_expansion": 52.54, "deceleration": 29.69, "rotation_down": 27.11, "downward_expansion": 17.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.243333, 11.138182, 11.02176, 11.002208 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.9, "trend_reference": 11.011921, "distance_from_trend": 0.080647, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.952032, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.086556, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.458507, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.069418, "excess_performance": -0.371955, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080647, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002434, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.086556, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113881, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.234585, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129598, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069418, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.292881, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7762761, "relative_activity": 4.756234, "balance": 2.292881, "dry_up": 1.770828, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034577, "annualized_volatility": 0.168654, "from_high_reference": -0.004184, "from_low_reference": 0.142665 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.011921, "fair_value_reference": 10.952032, "structural_low": 10.414249, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.004505, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.016392, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.035242, "worst_return": -0.014084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.036697, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.025888, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.081081, "worst_return": -0.028169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.046302, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.053295, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.162996, "worst_return": -0.006721, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.9, "volume": 903013, "typical_volume": 1300734.55, "trend": 11.022031, "fair_value": 10.91789, "relative_strength": -29.074728, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.657812, "energy": 12.301524, "activity_lines": [ 11.016667, 11.005472, 10.935323, 10.961105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.75, "volume": 1472517, "typical_volume": 1308679.4, "trend": 11.00152, "fair_value": 10.926279, "relative_strength": -28.309878, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.895066, "energy": 17.296736, "activity_lines": [ 10.93, 10.969309, 10.91829, 10.943554 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.0, "volume": 1422550, "typical_volume": 1330998.45, "trend": 10.989343, "fair_value": 10.935991, "relative_strength": -27.538858, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.055985, "energy": 12.110382, "activity_lines": [ 10.93, 10.975956, 10.926864, 10.943456 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 11.9, "volume": 7762761, "typical_volume": 1632123.55, "trend": 11.011921, "fair_value": 10.952032, "relative_strength": -23.458507, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.774866, "energy": 38.176818, "activity_lines": [ 11.243333, 11.138182, 11.02176, 11.002208 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }