{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7addc157-6e5b-4e95-aeac-b01644616409", "symbol": "MAT", "name": "Mattel, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.515, "architecture_energy": 20.959, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.966, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.91, "rotation_up": 35.24, "upward_expansion": 24.67, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 24.61, "downward_expansion": 52.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.631333, 12.432873, 12.513395, 12.786523 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.508, "trend_reference": 13.5558, "distance_from_trend": -0.077295, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.504641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.242153, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.619199, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.308568, "excess_performance": -0.482815, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077295, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109222, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.242153, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014508, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.316192, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017431, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.308568, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.634713, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1520, "relative_activity": 3.376277, "balance": 0.634713, "dry_up": 3.872723, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054328, "annualized_volatility": 0.453419, "from_high_reference": -0.336622, "from_low_reference": 0.133382 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.5558, "fair_value_reference": 16.504641, "structural_low": 11.036, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.008036, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.005242, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.226216, "worst_return": -0.193172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.037551, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.012748, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.172243, "worst_return": -0.134399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.129654, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.024693, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.188972, "worst_return": -0.212875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.064131, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.208722, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.002609, "worst_return": -0.091503, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057837, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104882, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.132082, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.200436, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104605, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059858, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037748, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023412, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", 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"energy": 69.581549, "activity_lines": [ 12.136533, 12.407018, 12.631895, 13.286329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.664, "volume": 1477, "typical_volume": 104.85, "trend": 14.178, "fair_value": 16.671154, "relative_strength": -37.012242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.484943, "energy": 73.69769, "activity_lines": [ 11.948667, 12.238982, 12.509676, 13.111617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.662, "volume": 3486, "typical_volume": 279.15, "trend": 14.0214, "fair_value": 16.628667, "relative_strength": -29.523196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.527423, "energy": 52.336174, "activity_lines": [ 12.126267, 12.270764, 12.497152, 13.013811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.554, "volume": 1958, "typical_volume": 373.7, "trend": 13.8797, "fair_value": 16.586898, "relative_strength": -30.500697, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.550227, "energy": 44.802037, "activity_lines": [ 12.2736, 12.2908, 12.482548, 12.91914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.07, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 374.2, "trend": 13.753867, "fair_value": 16.54959, "relative_strength": -27.03015, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.9815, "energy": 17.39065, "activity_lines": [ 12.571333, 12.413309, 12.522519, 12.866901 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.508, "volume": 1520, "typical_volume": 450.2, "trend": 13.5558, "fair_value": 16.504641, "relative_strength": -31.619199, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.515424, "energy": 20.959188, "activity_lines": [ 12.631333, 12.432873, 12.513395, 12.786523 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }