{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ade82d8-3ef4-4444-bf74-6f076c049b13", "symbol": "600901", "name": "Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 84.525, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 0.561, "architecture_energy": 15.263, "architecture_maturity": 25.375, "architecture_confidence": 62.955, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.77, "rotation_up": 55.08, "upward_expansion": 32.68, "deceleration": 37.46, "rotation_down": 15.54, "downward_expansion": 22.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.43, 6.318288, 6.332649, 6.376458 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.36, "trend_reference": 6.393656, "distance_from_trend": -0.005264, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.163844, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.231641, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.892688, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.00157, "excess_performance": 0.041634, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005264, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007362, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.231641, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096045, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038927, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043493, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.00157, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.641885, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 180296140, "relative_activity": 1.270153, "balance": 0.641885, "dry_up": 1.347261, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057051, "annualized_volatility": 0.224031, "from_high_reference": -0.097361, "from_low_reference": 0.203773 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.393656, "fair_value_reference": 5.163844, "structural_low": 5.82, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.022059, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.013416, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.135021, "worst_return": -0.030418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.071046, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.023611, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.168986, "worst_return": -0.046993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.141404, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.105551, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.171717, "worst_return": -0.114662, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024048, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041666, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055886, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02349, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018758, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029412, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.000155, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037521, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09661, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026034, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 3.850238, "volume": 123223279, "typical_volume": 140852499.65, "trend": 3.557982, "fair_value": 3.003469, "relative_strength": 13.226606, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 6.53, "volume": 215402561, "typical_volume": 138131202.9, "trend": 6.372656, "fair_value": 5.127414, "relative_strength": 10.342294, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.202186, "energy": 12.763147, "activity_lines": [ 6.306, 6.237616, 6.326694, 6.367317 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.54, "volume": 181330190, "typical_volume": 140553913.7, "trend": 6.385656, "fair_value": 5.146234, "relative_strength": 9.872396, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.607869, "energy": 13.079939, "activity_lines": [ 6.419333, 6.297866, 6.338362, 6.378113 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.36, "volume": 180296140, "typical_volume": 141948309.8, "trend": 6.393656, "fair_value": 5.163844, "relative_strength": 3.892688, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.561261, "energy": 15.263029, "activity_lines": [ 6.43, 6.318288, 6.332649, 6.376458 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }