{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ae98968-bc2c-4630-ad09-45f8437fc7fc", "symbol": "ECG", "name": "Everus Construction Group Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 4.537, "architecture_energy": 15.922, "architecture_maturity": 45.993, "architecture_confidence": 70.257, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.48, "rotation_up": 16.51, "upward_expansion": 41.3, "deceleration": 81.97, "rotation_down": 40.31, "downward_expansion": 35.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 131.952, 136.801455, 141.518476, 137.268172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 136.89, "trend_reference": 128.437667, "distance_from_trend": 0.065809, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 87.037312, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.572774, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.660186, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.407031, "excess_performance": 0.281406, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065809, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.15488, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.572774, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.524184, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.116602, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.503637, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.407031, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.419474, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4010949, "relative_activity": 1.367163, "balance": 0.419474, "dry_up": 1.036432, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135961, "annualized_volatility": 0.410598, "from_high_reference": -0.202166, "from_low_reference": 0.966528 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 128.437667, "fair_value_reference": 87.037312, "structural_low": 97.21, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.155222, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.150602, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.155222, "worst_return": -0.155222, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"trend": 122.707333, "fair_value": 85.044157, "relative_strength": 17.683456, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.218933, "energy": 22.137704, "activity_lines": [ 144.445333, 147.634364, 144.172143, 135.563505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 133.23, "volume": 3333306, "typical_volume": 2937377.0, "trend": 124.180667, "fair_value": 85.579556, "relative_strength": 15.533161, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.757971, "energy": 17.868249, "activity_lines": [ 139.734667, 144.503818, 143.790857, 136.242387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 129.99, "volume": 2012473, "typical_volume": 2861650.5, "trend": 125.510667, "fair_value": 86.067582, "relative_strength": 12.562276, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.550206, "energy": 17.010373, "activity_lines": [ 134.984, 141.329818, 143.042143, 136.617183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 125.43, "volume": 2805914, "typical_volume": 2872784.7, "trend": 126.719, "fair_value": 86.495435, "relative_strength": 6.729473, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.743438, "energy": 19.15493, "activity_lines": [ 130.561333, 137.812727, 141.765143, 136.611978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 136.89, "volume": 4010949, "typical_volume": 2933776.25, "trend": 128.437667, "fair_value": 87.037312, "relative_strength": 11.660186, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.537458, "energy": 15.921527, "activity_lines": [ 131.952, 136.801455, 141.518476, 137.268172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }