{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7aeab978-32d2-4620-b3be-cb2bab0d991d", "symbol": "XLKS", "name": "Invesco Technology S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.368, "architecture_energy": 44.188, "architecture_maturity": 62.176, "architecture_confidence": 90.306, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.28, "rotation_up": 40.79, "upward_expansion": 70.38, "deceleration": 93.94, "rotation_down": 28.67, "downward_expansion": 10.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 1024.333325, 1020.696363, 1009.609049, 971.624519 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1071.199951, "trend_reference": 925.17667, "distance_from_trend": 0.157833, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 696.806936, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.537298, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.054343, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.291536, "excess_performance": 0.240301, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.157833, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062485, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.537298, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004787, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.110543, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032348, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.291536, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.871472, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22311, "relative_activity": 1.268835, "balance": 0.871472, "dry_up": 1.735442, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043218, "annualized_volatility": 0.245343, "from_high_reference": -0.004091, "from_low_reference": 0.423143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 925.17667, "fair_value_reference": 696.806936, "structural_low": 752.700012, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.000201, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.024216, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.11963, "worst_return": -0.113677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.085156, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.030235, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.161188, "worst_return": -0.151257, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.187125, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.1146, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.283453, "worst_return": -0.00256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 1032.800049, "volume": 10708, "typical_volume": 14991.15, "trend": 904.571669, "fair_value": 682.035397, "relative_strength": 11.991958, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.596654, "energy": 48.164832, "activity_lines": [ 1021.893347, 1026.661824, 982.973101, 944.554844 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 995.400024, "volume": 10604, "typical_volume": 14929.9, "trend": 909.198338, "fair_value": 685.541135, "relative_strength": 6.70646, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.311874, "energy": 37.255486, "activity_lines": [ 1012.826685, 1021.203646, 988.944531, 950.414737 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1009.400024, "volume": 5113, "typical_volume": 14174.55, "trend": 913.846671, "fair_value": 689.11402, "relative_strength": 6.642384, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.956264, "energy": 36.466326, "activity_lines": [ 1010.146688, 1018.225468, 995.402152, 956.879362 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 989.299988, "volume": 84035, "typical_volume": 17221.75, "trend": 918.103339, "fair_value": 692.639083, "relative_strength": 3.110976, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.87332, "energy": 28.605457, "activity_lines": [ 1003.366679, 1011.672737, 999.043102, 961.747318 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1071.199951, "volume": 22311, "typical_volume": 17583.85, "trend": 925.17667, "fair_value": 696.806936, "relative_strength": 11.054343, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.368122, "energy": 44.187555, "activity_lines": [ 1024.333325, 1020.696363, 1009.609049, 971.624519 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }