{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "7af32098-a412-437c-aef3-93eceadf4d97",
    "symbol": "WBC",
    "name": "Westpac Banking Corporation",
    "exchange": "NZE",
    "country": "NZ",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^NZ50",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -11.505,
    "architecture_energy": 20.953,
    "architecture_maturity": 24.997,
    "architecture_confidence": 69.344,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 60.08,
        "rotation_up": 42.65,
        "upward_expansion": 22.73,
        "deceleration": 40.75,
        "rotation_down": 14.9,
        "downward_expansion": 52.07
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        45.061334,
        44.327273,
        44.364153,
        45.125394
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 45.580002,
    "trend_reference": 45.792927,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.00465,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 33.875889,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.3455,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -0.986575,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.008022,
    "excess_performance": -0.036295,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.00465,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.001903,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.3455,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.074427,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.009866,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.083602,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.008022,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.817115,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 49260,
      "relative_activity": 1.107949,
      "balance": 0.817115,
      "dry_up": 1.162064,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.031154,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.232037,
      "from_high_reference": -0.115273,
      "from_low_reference": 0.279533
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 45.792927,
      "fair_value_reference": 33.875889,
      "structural_low": 42.0,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.029203,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.023166,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.059005,
        "worst_return": -0.104166,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.073544,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.067859,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.194374,
        "worst_return": -0.14912,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.05609,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.077043,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.296512,
        "worst_return": -0.063223,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.256778,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.229782,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.611821,
        "worst_return": -0.056176,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.030696,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.041678,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.000896,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.042027,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.087803,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.05274,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.001099,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.193968,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-12",
        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.000899,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-26",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.085393,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-05-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.03971,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "return": -0.010333,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.051164,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "typical_volume": 54223.9,
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        "fair_value": 31.562327,
        "relative_strength": 14.486577,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 55570.05,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 43.720001,
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        "typical_volume": 57673.15,
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        "fair_value": 32.057388,
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        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -28.120876,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 58555.95,
        "trend": 45.665556,
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        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -20.277183,
        "energy": 34.062763,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 43.549999,
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        "typical_volume": 59172.65,
        "trend": 45.705941,
        "fair_value": 32.372836,
        "relative_strength": 1.323807,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -30.879015,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 42.060001,
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        "typical_volume": 56634.15,
        "trend": 45.640618,
        "fair_value": 32.518086,
        "relative_strength": -1.794957,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 55038.15,
        "trend": 45.579569,
        "fair_value": 32.660171,
        "relative_strength": -3.66982,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 53135.2,
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        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 50284.05,
        "trend": 45.619091,
        "fair_value": 32.95487,
        "relative_strength": -2.497632,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -62.851004,
        "energy": 68.863109,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 4750,
        "typical_volume": 46535.65,
        "trend": 45.647306,
        "fair_value": 33.107417,
        "relative_strength": -2.974785,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "direction": -59.670151,
        "energy": 55.966588,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 44246.15,
        "trend": 45.654194,
        "fair_value": 33.260303,
        "relative_strength": -3.021998,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -46.103014,
        "energy": 36.277225,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 43.860001,
        "volume": 79718,
        "typical_volume": 44923.05,
        "trend": 45.657728,
        "fair_value": 33.407992,
        "relative_strength": -2.912779,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -42.257637,
        "energy": 31.024629,
        "activity_lines": [
          43.626,
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          44.418694,
          45.206376
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 44.619999,
        "volume": 31193,
        "typical_volume": 44507.5,
        "trend": 45.685283,
        "fair_value": 33.559382,
        "relative_strength": -2.087093,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -35.917122,
        "energy": 24.422244,
        "activity_lines": [
          44.028,
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          44.323778,
          45.139426
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 45.610001,
        "volume": 46493,
        "typical_volume": 44805.25,
        "trend": 45.722219,
        "fair_value": 33.717787,
        "relative_strength": 0.284477,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -19.168152,
        "energy": 22.267159,
        "activity_lines": [
          44.633334,
          43.948909,
          44.337957,
          45.134569
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 45.580002,
        "volume": 49260,
        "typical_volume": 44460.55,
        "trend": 45.792927,
        "fair_value": 33.875889,
        "relative_strength": -0.986575,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -11.505406,
        "energy": 20.952848,
        "activity_lines": [
          45.061334,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}