{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7af48be6-65c0-4c54-9168-7214dabdc846", "symbol": "W1MG34", "name": "Warner Music Group Corp.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.025, "architecture_energy": 71.475, "architecture_maturity": 11.642, "architecture_confidence": 74.273, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.96, "rotation_up": 8.95, "upward_expansion": 14.78, "deceleration": 38.01, "rotation_down": 74.03, "downward_expansion": 88.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.225334, 35.007637, 36.411081, 36.456956 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 33.360001, "trend_reference": 36.883278, "distance_from_trend": -0.095525, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.647283, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.179281, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.866819, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.142756, "excess_performance": -0.085708, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095525, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040337, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.179281, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17292, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.188668, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035596, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.142756, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 34.866667, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 642, "relative_activity": 10.817186, "balance": 34.866667, "dry_up": 2.826453, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057043, "annualized_volatility": 0.474088, "from_high_reference": -0.273602, "from_low_reference": 0.071406 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.883278, "fair_value_reference": 40.647283, "structural_low": 31.136658, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.014829, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.005917, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.199986, "worst_return": -0.10164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.032249, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.112667, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.488992, "worst_return": -0.203549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.037582, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.010302, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.264682, "worst_return": -0.103616, "sufficient": 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36.724055, "activity_lines": [ 36.096667, 37.351958, 37.220085, 37.210823 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.91, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 28.35, "trend": 37.490814, "fair_value": 40.714687, "relative_strength": -13.519959, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.372483, "energy": 35.130434, "activity_lines": [ 36.292667, 37.071896, 37.248405, 37.168868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.470001, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 27.8, "trend": 37.339989, "fair_value": 40.700811, "relative_strength": -18.606735, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.844027, "energy": 41.467012, "activity_lines": [ 35.738667, 36.404407, 37.033992, 36.973977 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.110001, "volume": 19, "typical_volume": 28.75, "trend": 37.14383, "fair_value": 40.680779, "relative_strength": -22.7164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.617564, "energy": 45.159926, "activity_lines": [ 34.857334, 35.599637, 36.701614, 36.701074 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.360001, "volume": 642, "typical_volume": 59.35, "trend": 36.883278, "fair_value": 40.647283, "relative_strength": -18.866819, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.024929, "energy": 71.4754, "activity_lines": [ 34.225334, 35.007637, 36.411081, 36.456956 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }