{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7af5c805-aa1f-4b03-9149-21f51b4e710a", "symbol": "AMD", "name": "Advanced Micro Devices Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.762, "architecture_energy": 27.17, "architecture_maturity": 76.748, "architecture_confidence": 93.574, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.13, "rotation_up": 30.34, "upward_expansion": 59.4, "deceleration": 88.27, "rotation_down": 27.45, "downward_expansion": 20.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 495.777333, 507.077455, 481.539238, 426.646452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 483.36, "trend_reference": 357.850333, "distance_from_trend": 0.350732, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 189.00516, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.55739, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 49.465166, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.318941, "excess_performance": 1.131487, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.350732, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.370873, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.55739, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.342939, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.494652, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.414768, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.318941, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.116192, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 173795793, "relative_activity": 1.033028, "balance": 1.116192, "dry_up": 0.892452, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158234, "annualized_volatility": 0.625642, "from_high_reference": -0.173362, "from_low_reference": 2.239244 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 357.850333, "fair_value_reference": 189.00516, "structural_low": 188.22, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.004405, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018592, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.480907, "worst_return": -0.122896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.112261, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.001197, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.404588, "worst_return": -0.234848, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.152735, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.07813, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.279179, "worst_return": 0.028234, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010064, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.365398, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064828, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.231995, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.124234, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 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72.599677, "energy": 64.326577, "activity_lines": [ 534.118667, 515.366364, 443.16119, 385.464495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 495.76, "volume": 131194494, "typical_volume": 168840803.75, "trend": 329.856, "fair_value": 181.664712, "relative_strength": 68.196616, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.693234, "energy": 51.972523, "activity_lines": [ 522.956667, 515.040727, 455.071, 396.77514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 521.95, "volume": 131618323, "typical_volume": 166285077.3, "trend": 340.088, "fair_value": 184.286442, "relative_strength": 76.214977, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.524218, "energy": 48.356119, "activity_lines": [ 521.578667, 518.739273, 468.067714, 409.168301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 476.15, "volume": 163972921, "typical_volume": 167106645.9, "trend": 348.510667, "fair_value": 186.59625, "relative_strength": 57.213394, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.36213, "energy": 36.225343, "activity_lines": [ 505.962, 512.331455, 475.133381, 417.946495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 483.36, "volume": 173795793, "typical_volume": 168239214.95, "trend": 357.850333, "fair_value": 189.00516, "relative_strength": 49.465166, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.761818, "energy": 27.17017, "activity_lines": [ 495.777333, 507.077455, 481.539238, 426.646452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }