{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7afb17a8-05e5-4551-a465-8131fe69b039", "symbol": "ALENT", "name": "Ethero", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.739, "architecture_energy": 85.969, "architecture_maturity": 98.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.635, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.17, "rotation_up": 16.25, "upward_expansion": 19.57, "deceleration": 38.75, "rotation_down": 77.38, "downward_expansion": 97.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.4765, 0.531982, 0.650629, 0.754445 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.4565, "trend_reference": 0.902817, "distance_from_trend": -0.49436, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.426006, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.679875, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -74.023842, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.611489, "excess_performance": -0.664801, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.49436, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.256186, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.679875, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.305195, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.740238, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055125, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.611489, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.039483, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102852, "relative_activity": 1.680958, "balance": 0.039483, "dry_up": 1.659503, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.176847, "annualized_volatility": 0.390832, "from_high_reference": -0.917599, "from_low_reference": 0.074118 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.902817, "fair_value_reference": 1.426006, "structural_low": 0.425, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": -0.08977, "positive_rate": 0.195652, "directional_follow_through": 0.804348, "median_excess_return": -0.075936, "regime_survival": 0.913043, "best_return": 1.085635, "worst_return": -0.310476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.211374, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.238195, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.755, "worst_return": -0.405941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.308537, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.318951, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.3, "worst_return": -0.582906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2022-09-09", "end": "2022-09-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.286364, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-10-07", "end": "2023-03-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.08764, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-03-17", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.725581, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.149153, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.059259, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.5008, 0.559109, 0.682381, 0.785151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.4565, "volume": 102852, "typical_volume": 61186.55, "trend": 0.902817, "fair_value": 1.426006, "relative_strength": -74.023842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.739483, "energy": 85.969243, "activity_lines": [ 0.4765, 0.531982, 0.650629, 0.754445 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }