{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7afb4d2a-dece-4208-a38f-9550170692e0", "symbol": "300024", "name": "Siasun Robot&Automation Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.398, "architecture_energy": 22.944, "architecture_maturity": 27.039, "architecture_confidence": 65.342, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.77, "rotation_up": 12.31, "upward_expansion": 9.43, "deceleration": 59.82, "rotation_down": 53.84, "downward_expansion": 66.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.393333, 15.795454, 15.733762, 15.787118 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.79, "trend_reference": 16.153, "distance_from_trend": -0.022473, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.921282, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.05822, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.752967, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.091484, "excess_performance": -0.098884, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022473, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03316, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.05822, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004818, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11753, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152738, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.091484, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.199345, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 224593243, "relative_activity": 1.204858, "balance": 1.199345, "dry_up": 1.245289, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126955, "annualized_volatility": 0.544987, "from_high_reference": -0.282273, "from_low_reference": 0.117481 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.153, "fair_value_reference": 14.921282, "structural_low": 14.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.046944, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.004562, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.255929, "worst_return": -0.15014, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.049182, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.025881, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.326978, "worst_return": -0.223206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.098814, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.011557, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.312775, "worst_return": -0.149371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.166696, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.295412, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.594789, "worst_return": -0.159437, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.374224, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01725, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.141038, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.089577, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041769, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08236, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.198473, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026699, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058497, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"relative_strength": -16.372623, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.090395, "energy": 16.012663, "activity_lines": [ 15.634, 15.899454, 15.726571, 15.876323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.37, "volume": 173580098, "typical_volume": 179691745.75, "trend": 16.233, "fair_value": 14.905, "relative_strength": -10.086036, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.163673, "energy": 22.847225, "activity_lines": [ 15.448667, 15.801091, 15.707524, 15.815699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.79, "volume": 224593243, "typical_volume": 186406470.25, "trend": 16.153, "fair_value": 14.921282, "relative_strength": -11.752967, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.397619, "energy": 22.944057, "activity_lines": [ 15.393333, 15.795454, 15.733762, 15.787118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }