{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7afef0ac-6805-4841-bd44-7aad407371e3", "symbol": "SSIL", "name": "WisdomTree Silver 1x Daily Short", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.958, "architecture_energy": 48.189, "architecture_maturity": 22.417, "architecture_confidence": 64.442, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.86, "rotation_up": 57.52, "upward_expansion": 80.29, "deceleration": 64.18, "rotation_down": 19.98, "downward_expansion": 6.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.91676, 1.905529, 1.788369, 1.724958 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.7798, "trend_reference": 1.65167, "distance_from_trend": 0.077576, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.866338, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.634263, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -35.231203, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.07398, "excess_performance": -0.096912, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077576, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133994, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.634263, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094313, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.352312, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.232683, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.07398, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.608425, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 612443, "relative_activity": 1.557576, "balance": 1.608425, "dry_up": 1.373009, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084495, "annualized_volatility": 0.538471, "from_high_reference": -0.594024, "from_low_reference": 0.567001 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.65167, "fair_value_reference": 4.866338, "structural_low": 1.275, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.034991, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.214286, "median_excess_return": -0.033258, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.170486, "worst_return": -0.095997, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.076282, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.1165, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.022458, "worst_return": -0.15033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.055537, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.072503, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.042929, "worst_return": -0.218943, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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47.403275, "energy": 71.767675, "activity_lines": [ 1.87844, 1.779175, 1.683796, 1.652767 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.0545, "volume": 774153, "typical_volume": 509435.4, "trend": 1.667897, "fair_value": 4.96873, "relative_strength": -28.089218, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.316536, "energy": 88.733572, "activity_lines": [ 1.948407, 1.845185, 1.724711, 1.677093 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.9566, "volume": 616006, "typical_volume": 465295.9, "trend": 1.659067, "fair_value": 4.936587, "relative_strength": -29.874184, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.866126, "energy": 78.809, "activity_lines": [ 1.962133, 1.882296, 1.75268, 1.695719 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.9874, "volume": 156882, "typical_volume": 441589.95, "trend": 1.65493, "fair_value": 4.903185, "relative_strength": -27.386052, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.819405, "energy": 75.324122, "activity_lines": [ 1.975073, 1.916949, 1.781469, 1.716902 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.7798, "volume": 612443, "typical_volume": 393202.75, "trend": 1.65167, "fair_value": 4.866338, "relative_strength": -35.231203, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.95836, "energy": 48.189329, "activity_lines": [ 1.91676, 1.905529, 1.788369, 1.724958 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }