{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b00530c-5ea5-422c-998f-7970eadf6320", "symbol": "EWG", "name": "iShares MSCI Germany ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.841, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 47.321, "architecture_energy": 50.217, "architecture_maturity": 14.584, "architecture_confidence": 57.047, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.44, "rotation_up": 65.3, "upward_expansion": 59.16, "deceleration": 22.39, "rotation_down": 21.59, "downward_expansion": 19.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 737.965332, 732.071498, 727.629372, 726.536873 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 753.5, "trend_reference": 729.924093, "distance_from_trend": 0.032299, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 649.95981, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.159302, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.161668, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.003329, "excess_performance": 0.057996, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032299, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012501, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.159302, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021008, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011617, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.141482, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003329, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.199242, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 144, "relative_activity": 0.012063, "balance": 1.199242, "dry_up": 0.513741, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022246, "annualized_volatility": 0.172502, "from_high_reference": -0.058866, "from_low_reference": 0.099198 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 729.924093, "fair_value_reference": 649.95981, "structural_low": 685.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.014046, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.016679, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.012858, "worst_return": -0.038289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.062403, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.060762, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.003674, "worst_return": -0.181282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.057728, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.120026, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.02379, "worst_return": -0.183, 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }