{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b043f33-3635-4b9d-9032-da86250d60f0", "symbol": "TWLO", "name": "Twilio Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.109, "architecture_energy": 59.89, "architecture_maturity": 67.334, "architecture_confidence": 80.036, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.21, "rotation_up": 54.25, "upward_expansion": 80.09, "deceleration": 67.95, "rotation_down": 26.22, "downward_expansion": 9.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 3728.00332, 3647.344531, 3456.809367, 3173.981946 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 4130.0, "trend_reference": 2812.500659, "distance_from_trend": 0.468444, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1870.803846, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.207607, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 58.822022, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.22043, "excess_performance": 1.275097, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.468444, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.163303, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.207607, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12199, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.58822, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179944, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.22043, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 11.212008, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8809, "relative_activity": 12.776851, "balance": 11.212008, "dry_up": 3.218145, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080522, "annualized_volatility": 0.783176, "from_high_reference": -0.050575, "from_low_reference": 1.361349 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2812.500659, "fair_value_reference": 1870.803846, "structural_low": 1840.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.031437, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.025205, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.481514, "worst_return": -0.225049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.085714, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.19113, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.726974, "worst_return": -0.24898, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.048625, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.039551, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.014803, "worst_return": -0.212531, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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53.533022, "activity_lines": [ 3574.92998, 3553.241073, 3262.135034, 2985.606786 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3571.209961, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 390.75, "trend": 2729.033993, "fair_value": 1836.118077, "relative_strength": 41.219901, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.726002, "energy": 56.495993, "activity_lines": [ 3603.655973, 3565.710343, 3320.917936, 3042.216439 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3400.0, "volume": 15, "typical_volume": 250.15, "trend": 2758.600659, "fair_value": 1851.034615, "relative_strength": 32.67794, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.495428, "energy": 46.97365, "activity_lines": [ 3550.497982, 3542.083074, 3356.884604, 3085.504569 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4130.0, "volume": 8809, "typical_volume": 689.45, "trend": 2812.500659, "fair_value": 1870.803846, "relative_strength": 58.822022, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.108555, "energy": 59.890426, "activity_lines": [ 3728.00332, 3647.344531, 3456.809367, 3173.981946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }