{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b0a729d-b7c3-4bc1-9d54-15e7fa434d6d", "symbol": "SCOR", "name": "Franklin Euro IG Corporate UCITS ETF EUR Inc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 51.023, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.539, "architecture_energy": 33.598, "architecture_maturity": 15.953, "architecture_confidence": 64.755, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.3, "rotation_up": 7.8, "upward_expansion": 8.7, "deceleration": 56.64, "rotation_down": 61.82, "downward_expansion": 67.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.217, 26.272367, 26.256945, 26.289045 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 26.280001, "trend_reference": 26.370108, "distance_from_trend": -0.003417, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.761162, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.02014, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.982583, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.015546, "excess_performance": -0.186438, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003417, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003108, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.02014, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002622, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149826, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018115, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015546, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.326715, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1661, "relative_activity": 0.619441, "balance": 1.326715, "dry_up": 1.500121, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005545, "annualized_volatility": 0.044985, "from_high_reference": -0.02468, "from_low_reference": 0.016942 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.370108, "fair_value_reference": 25.761162, "structural_low": 25.84219, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.006839, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.017314, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.006839, "worst_return": -0.006839, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004893, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.005424, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013702, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006612, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011804, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007171, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00152, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-01-12", "close": 24.30163, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-01-19", "close": 24.30163, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 26.375, "volume": 6350, "typical_volume": 2108.85, "trend": 26.409774, "fair_value": 25.747725, "relative_strength": -14.557665, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.949471, "energy": 13.452702, "activity_lines": [ 26.379666, 26.344395, 26.282745, 26.339288 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.24, "volume": 331, "typical_volume": 2120.8, "trend": 26.402274, "fair_value": 25.751454, "relative_strength": -13.38561, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.135005, "energy": 15.083951, "activity_lines": [ 26.32, 26.335827, 26.27642, 26.328334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.139999, "volume": 2084, "typical_volume": 2125.0, "trend": 26.391108, "fair_value": 25.754375, "relative_strength": -13.185093, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.328558, "energy": 30.329403, "activity_lines": [ 26.257666, 26.307572, 26.263357, 26.311413 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.145, "volume": 12014, "typical_volume": 2607.6, "trend": 26.380608, "fair_value": 25.75729, "relative_strength": -13.332038, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.726962, "energy": 42.738805, "activity_lines": [ 26.209, 26.27857, 26.253151, 26.295535 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.280001, "volume": 1661, "typical_volume": 2681.45, "trend": 26.370108, "fair_value": 25.761162, "relative_strength": -14.982583, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.538757, "energy": 33.597963, "activity_lines": [ 26.217, 26.272367, 26.256945, 26.289045 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }