{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b13beaa-0613-4ea3-b588-02c3fe9f9f14", "symbol": "603922", "name": "Suzhou Jin Hong Shun Auto Parts Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.503, "architecture_energy": 85.862, "architecture_maturity": 44.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.331, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 13.03, "upward_expansion": 21.58, "deceleration": 37.17, "rotation_down": 74.97, "downward_expansion": 97.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.753333, 11.870545, 13.888, 15.565828 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.22, "trend_reference": 17.34, "distance_from_trend": -0.352941, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.233317, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.416637, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.689011, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.382838, "excess_performance": -0.339634, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.352941, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123061, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.416637, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.292475, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.40689, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17187, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.382838, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.321745, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6195080, "relative_activity": 0.361177, "balance": 0.321745, "dry_up": 0.461959, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.170575, "annualized_volatility": 0.6541, "from_high_reference": -0.555995, "from_low_reference": 0.206452 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.34, "fair_value_reference": 19.233317, "structural_low": 9.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.033199, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.046727, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.348684, "worst_return": -0.274051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.289478, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.217111, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.560697, "worst_return": -0.023246, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.229313, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.120935, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.432241, "worst_return": -0.38, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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17.488193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.47, "volume": 9396055, "typical_volume": 19826132.1, "trend": 18.268, "fair_value": 19.34545, "relative_strength": -38.837607, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.554437, "energy": 79.088679, "activity_lines": [ 12.876667, 13.728545, 15.741619, 17.032559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.84, "volume": 9792300, "typical_volume": 18836600.1, "trend": 17.958333, "fair_value": 19.307227, "relative_strength": -47.639025, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.15866, "energy": 89.956758, "activity_lines": [ 11.614, 12.902545, 15.017095, 16.488817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.09, "volume": 6311500, "typical_volume": 17676384.7, "trend": 17.658, "fair_value": 19.264066, "relative_strength": -45.903849, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.492385, "energy": 89.623148, "activity_lines": [ 10.832, 12.238, 14.372, 15.981183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.22, "volume": 6195080, "typical_volume": 17152475.7, "trend": 17.34, "fair_value": 19.233317, "relative_strength": -40.689011, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.502767, "energy": 85.861537, "activity_lines": [ 10.753333, 11.870545, 13.888, 15.565828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }