{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b1cabb1-cdee-4826-bcc7-3a7264ba8fe4", "symbol": "QIS", "name": "SIMPLIFY EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS MULTI-QIS ALTERNATIVE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.592, "architecture_energy": 54.818, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.881, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.17, "rotation_up": 27.09, "upward_expansion": 13.35, "deceleration": 58.9, "rotation_down": 52.77, "downward_expansion": 77.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.9221, 10.004567, 10.778023, 11.400831 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.5408, "trend_reference": 12.32535, "distance_from_trend": -0.225921, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.67155, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.538457, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.032276, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.29232, "excess_performance": -0.417945, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.225921, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143785, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.538457, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112081, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.430323, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05653, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.29232, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.439225, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 819, "relative_activity": 0.058345, "balance": 0.439225, "dry_up": 0.186682, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095544, "annualized_volatility": 0.409488, "from_high_reference": -0.54066, "from_low_reference": 0.043623 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.32535, "fair_value_reference": 20.67155, "structural_low": 9.142, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.019896, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.040865, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.061315, "worst_return": -0.193283, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.10707, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.181696, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.009591, "worst_return": -0.241968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.204613, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.298728, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.086094, "worst_return": -0.323131, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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9.891219, 10.410347, 11.274738, 11.917758 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.4336, "volume": 4796, "typical_volume": 14076.4, "trend": 12.660216, "fair_value": 20.848411, "relative_strength": -36.981464, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.950492, "energy": 64.136526, "activity_lines": [ 10.04782, 10.29482, 11.134186, 11.763623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.0002, "volume": 3228, "typical_volume": 14139.0, "trend": 12.504066, "fair_value": 20.761393, "relative_strength": -39.295521, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.130189, "energy": 53.69611, "activity_lines": [ 10.069647, 10.163572, 10.969632, 11.592009 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.5408, "volume": 819, "typical_volume": 14037.25, "trend": 12.32535, "fair_value": 20.67155, "relative_strength": -43.032276, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.591946, "energy": 54.818487, "activity_lines": [ 9.9221, 10.004567, 10.778023, 11.400831 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }