{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b1caead-78a9-45cb-a1a2-ccd5bbc0152e", "symbol": "ADX", "name": "Adams Diversified Equity Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.038, "architecture_energy": 55.732, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.102, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.53, "rotation_up": 64.51, "upward_expansion": 85.77, "deceleration": 51.01, "rotation_down": 22.67, "downward_expansion": 7.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.69065, 25.456018, 25.116802, 24.53947 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 26.12, "trend_reference": 23.845322, "distance_from_trend": 0.095393, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.454158, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.415399, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.183971, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.152989, "excess_performance": 0.027364, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095393, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047498, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.415399, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00223, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.02184, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001914, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.152989, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.052041, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1725373, "relative_activity": 1.22199, "balance": 1.052041, "dry_up": 1.146351, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030922, "annualized_volatility": 0.151604, "from_high_reference": -0.004971, "from_low_reference": 0.297459 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.845322, "fair_value_reference": 18.454158, "structural_low": 20.506429, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": 0.01533, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.002014, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.096509, "worst_return": -0.101546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.05103, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.009548, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.175932, "worst_return": -0.070136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.117363, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.020928, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.222646, "worst_return": -0.166259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.522902, "energy": 51.474411, "activity_lines": [ 25.169541, 25.109316, 24.525572, 24.010477 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.467873, "volume": 1301297, "typical_volume": 1368010.2, "trend": 23.526784, "fair_value": 18.205374, "relative_strength": 3.948597, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.458475, "energy": 49.616266, "activity_lines": [ 25.299108, 25.185732, 24.679924, 24.143343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.379613, "volume": 1783381, "typical_volume": 1393315.9, "trend": 23.623604, "fair_value": 18.285812, "relative_strength": 4.088138, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.061401, "energy": 55.61616, "activity_lines": [ 25.356731, 25.22923, 24.812752, 24.262881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.52, "volume": 1664248, "typical_volume": 1392451.4, "trend": 23.729269, "fair_value": 18.368085, "relative_strength": 3.42338, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.789313, "energy": 50.659565, "activity_lines": [ 25.455175, 25.292624, 24.94457, 24.385229 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.12, "volume": 1725373, "typical_volume": 1411936.9, "trend": 23.845322, "fair_value": 18.454158, "relative_strength": 2.183971, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.037838, "energy": 55.731864, "activity_lines": [ 25.69065, 25.456018, 25.116802, 24.53947 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }