{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b209fba-0ac7-4518-9eed-bb01a51cd204", "symbol": "XLKS", "name": "Invesco Technology S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.554, "architecture_energy": 46.863, "architecture_maturity": 69.905, "architecture_confidence": 91.192, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.63, "rotation_up": 41.12, "upward_expansion": 66.85, "deceleration": 94.12, "rotation_down": 29.18, "downward_expansion": 16.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 891.611328, 889.846724, 875.498238, 840.114905 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 927.119995, "trend_reference": 796.470003, "distance_from_trend": 0.164036, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 623.001071, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.488152, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.914381, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.32042, "excess_performance": 0.149529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.164036, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068785, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.488152, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039073, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039144, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013745, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.32042, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.496308, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6899, "relative_activity": 1.075716, "balance": 2.496308, "dry_up": 0.797666, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042165, "annualized_volatility": 0.250878, "from_high_reference": -0.003097, "from_low_reference": 0.411099 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 796.470003, "fair_value_reference": 623.001071, "structural_low": 657.02002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.005595, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.020071, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.103835, "worst_return": -0.123887, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.007402, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.039811, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.18249, "worst_return": -0.140796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.153029, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.09468, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.279262, "worst_return": 0.041595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.185401, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004181, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075883, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.034184, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054548, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", 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"typical_volume": 6858.6, "trend": 790.201337, "fair_value": 619.518635, "relative_strength": -0.857235, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.84292, "energy": 34.395357, "activity_lines": [ 876.311996, 882.943452, 866.166905, 831.281443 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 927.119995, "volume": 6899, "typical_volume": 6413.4, "trend": 796.470003, "fair_value": 623.001071, "relative_strength": 3.914381, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.553987, "energy": 46.863428, "activity_lines": [ 891.611328, 889.846724, 875.498238, 840.114905 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }