{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b22b749-6cb1-4c6a-baea-6d08f2edaab4", "symbol": "SCZ", "name": "ISHARES MSCI EAFE SMALL-CAP ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 70.293, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.88, "architecture_energy": 51.258, "architecture_maturity": 10.647, "architecture_confidence": 80.576, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.63, "rotation_up": 54.81, "upward_expansion": 79.64, "deceleration": 52.53, "rotation_down": 18.5, "downward_expansion": 8.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 84.394667, 83.801174, 83.497998, 82.748899 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 86.8, "trend_reference": 82.035234, "distance_from_trend": 0.058082, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 65.658872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.321984, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.638583, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.057341, "excess_performance": -0.130113, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058082, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034206, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.321984, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017586, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036386, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027244, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057341, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.331849, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6425745, "relative_activity": 0.806805, "balance": 1.331849, "dry_up": 0.867912, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026546, "annualized_volatility": 0.182735, "from_high_reference": -0.000921, "from_low_reference": 0.221431 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 82.035234, "fair_value_reference": 65.658872, "structural_low": 74.419062, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.028119, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.05703, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.073728, "worst_return": -0.069918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.031436, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.061073, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146525, "worst_return": -0.030288, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.071074, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.049168, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.147803, "worst_return": -0.129542, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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-8.106653, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.539009, "energy": 18.93391, "activity_lines": [ 83.229193, 83.398174, 82.669211, 82.103685 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 82.49, "volume": 6745563, "typical_volume": 8831282.05, "trend": 81.363221, "fair_value": 65.087299, "relative_strength": -5.05084, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.823156, "energy": 15.938715, "activity_lines": [ 82.958, 83.198028, 82.74444, 82.190874 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 82.65, "volume": 5440635, "typical_volume": 8103601.7, "trend": 81.556048, "fair_value": 65.260247, "relative_strength": -3.221477, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.999563, "energy": 15.584228, "activity_lines": [ 82.833333, 83.066377, 82.84471, 82.273892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 83.9, "volume": 9037768, "typical_volume": 8005197.3, "trend": 81.781337, "fair_value": 65.44942, "relative_strength": -2.212467, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.776084, "energy": 23.456419, "activity_lines": [ 83.188667, 83.169263, 83.050244, 82.425115 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 86.8, "volume": 6425745, "typical_volume": 7964436.45, "trend": 82.035234, "fair_value": 65.658872, "relative_strength": -3.638583, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.880368, "energy": 51.258408, "activity_lines": [ 84.394667, 83.801174, 83.497998, 82.748899 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }