{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b2bbc2f-650b-4068-85e4-d0ddcdfafdfc", "symbol": "XINC", "name": "iShares Core Income Balanced ETF Portfolio", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.93, "architecture_energy": 24.454, "architecture_maturity": 50.574, "architecture_confidence": 77.541, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.71, "rotation_up": 28.31, "upward_expansion": 58.02, "deceleration": 87.89, "rotation_down": 29.06, "downward_expansion": 19.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.427, 21.464826, 21.404525, 21.329929 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.51, "trend_reference": 21.261387, "distance_from_trend": 0.011693, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.606719, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.097073, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.445881, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.014431, "excess_performance": -0.10599, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011693, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007905, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.097073, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006496, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094459, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001943, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014431, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.629672, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52700, "relative_activity": 3.32597, "balance": 1.629672, "dry_up": 1.59514, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007853, "annualized_volatility": 0.054869, "from_high_reference": -0.006925, "from_low_reference": 0.060168 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.261387, "fair_value_reference": 19.606719, "structural_low": 20.697845, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.005187, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.008928, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.023474, "worst_return": -0.028473, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.002174, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.019313, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.044826, "worst_return": -0.022519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.017372, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.046299, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.040694, "worst_return": -0.081466, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025039, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.065287, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.042247, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.040664, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013341, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-13", 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"typical_volume": 14990.0, "trend": 21.235569, "fair_value": 19.5528, "relative_strength": -8.229748, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.156158, "energy": 34.488911, "activity_lines": [ 21.459667, 21.476146, 21.37235, 21.305732 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.35, "volume": 7600, "typical_volume": 14325.0, "trend": 21.249368, "fair_value": 19.579482, "relative_strength": -7.555375, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.401924, "energy": 22.321273, "activity_lines": [ 21.41, 21.456763, 21.381887, 21.313114 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.51, "volume": 52700, "typical_volume": 15845.0, "trend": 21.261387, "fair_value": 19.606719, "relative_strength": -9.445881, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.930201, "energy": 24.454239, "activity_lines": [ 21.427, 21.464826, 21.404525, 21.329929 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }