{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b2c613f-3510-4e14-9f2a-583922c6c145", "symbol": "VR1", "name": "Vection Technologies Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.787, "architecture_energy": 36.301, "architecture_maturity": 75.51, "architecture_confidence": 66.454, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.83, "rotation_up": 26.34, "upward_expansion": 16.59, "deceleration": 65.74, "rotation_down": 43.25, "downward_expansion": 68.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0224, 0.022273, 0.023733, 0.025535 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.022, "trend_reference": 0.027867, "distance_from_trend": -0.210526, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.029276, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.248522, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.321304, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.371429, "excess_performance": -0.435134, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.210526, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129167, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.248522, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186722, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.413213, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190104, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.371429, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.428181, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5399864, "relative_activity": 0.311302, "balance": 0.428181, "dry_up": 0.735094, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132867, "annualized_volatility": 0.550088, "from_high_reference": -0.725, "from_low_reference": 0.222222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.027867, "fair_value_reference": 0.029276, "structural_low": 0.018, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.030303, "positive_rate": 0.358974, "directional_follow_through": 0.589744, "median_excess_return": -0.030423, "regime_survival": 0.820513, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.102041, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.101844, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 1.833333, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.229432, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.198119, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 1.132353, "worst_return": -0.368421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 0.021267, 0.0228, 0.025805, 0.027544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.024, "volume": 23142647, "typical_volume": 25774208.9, "trend": 0.029267, "fair_value": 0.029801, "relative_strength": -35.141088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.512654, "energy": 58.314976, "activity_lines": [ 0.022, 0.022727, 0.025443, 0.027181 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.024, "volume": 19892610, "typical_volume": 24620914.2, "trend": 0.029067, "fair_value": 0.029667, "relative_strength": -34.555818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.025015, "energy": 48.745525, "activity_lines": [ 0.022667, 0.022764, 0.0251, 0.026841 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.022, "volume": 9009534, "typical_volume": 21638489.35, "trend": 0.028767, "fair_value": 0.029526, "relative_strength": -39.28473, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.043331, "energy": 39.356024, "activity_lines": [ 0.0226, 0.022527, 0.024595, 0.026385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.022, "volume": 16701891, "typical_volume": 20069140.75, "trend": 0.0284, "fair_value": 0.029397, "relative_strength": -40.095679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.754744, "energy": 34.203831, "activity_lines": [ 0.0226, 0.022382, 0.024143, 0.025948 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.022, "volume": 5399864, "typical_volume": 17346055.9, "trend": 0.027867, "fair_value": 0.029276, "relative_strength": -41.321304, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.786609, "energy": 36.301354, "activity_lines": [ 0.0224, 0.022273, 0.023733, 0.025535 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }