{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b2db1dd-e946-4a4c-a45b-0b1762ea611d", "symbol": "PA3", "name": "TA Corporation Ltd", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 82.885, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.948, "architecture_energy": 51.339, "architecture_maturity": 5.949, "architecture_confidence": 79.518, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.25, "rotation_up": 16.76, "upward_expansion": 26.11, "deceleration": 51.5, "rotation_down": 69.7, "downward_expansion": 51.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0928, 0.099636, 0.105386, 0.104551 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.095, "trend_reference": 0.099933, "distance_from_trend": -0.049366, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.078179, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.215153, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.020753, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.30137, "excess_performance": 0.146535, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049366, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119074, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.215153, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.238346, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090208, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.351176, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.30137, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.001745, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 268600, "relative_activity": 1.393949, "balance": 2.001745, "dry_up": 1.147569, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099595, "annualized_volatility": 0.745657, "from_high_reference": -0.24, "from_low_reference": 0.338028 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.099933, "fair_value_reference": 0.078179, "structural_low": 0.071, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.021535, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.044142, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.430769, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.061538, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.127063, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.233333, "worst_return": -0.064103, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.282051, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.092722, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.466667, "worst_return": 0.046154, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.153846, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.183179, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.153846, "worst_return": 0.153846, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-10-07", "end": "2022-10-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2022-10-21", "end": "2022-10-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2022-10-28", "end": "2022-11-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-11-11", "end": "2023-01-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-02-03", "end": "2023-03-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.324324, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-03-10", "end": "2023-04-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102041, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-05-05", "end": "2023-05-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.113636, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-06-02", "end": "2023-06-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-06-16", "end": "2023-07-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064103, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-08-04", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.132743, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.073, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 24625.0, "trend": 0.082333, "fair_value": 0.0815, "relative_strength": 0.041618, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.620567, "energy": 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.891166, "energy": 15.777378, "activity_lines": [ 0.109933, 0.112764, 0.111243, 0.105927 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.1, "volume": 90200, "typical_volume": 188365.0, "trend": 0.098167, "fair_value": 0.07784, "relative_strength": -1.329365, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.217091, "energy": 18.571599, "activity_lines": [ 0.105867, 0.1102, 0.110348, 0.106103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.089, "volume": 310400, "typical_volume": 185825.0, "trend": 0.0987, "fair_value": 0.077942, "relative_strength": -13.313865, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -22.097234, "energy": 36.711688, "activity_lines": [ 0.099133, 0.105818, 0.108467, 0.105512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.088, "volume": 215300, "typical_volume": 193800.0, "trend": 0.0992, "fair_value": 0.078038, "relative_strength": -14.726323, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.402041, "energy": 50.024508, "activity_lines": [ 0.093867, 0.101818, 0.106552, 0.104822 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.095, "volume": 268600, "typical_volume": 192690.0, "trend": 0.099933, "fair_value": 0.078179, "relative_strength": -9.020753, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.94837, "energy": 51.338688, "activity_lines": [ 0.0928, 0.099636, 0.105386, 0.104551 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }