{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b324cdd-a012-4af3-8f75-f9c949a1354f", "symbol": "603800", "name": "Jiangsu Hongtian Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.32, "architecture_energy": 25.962, "architecture_maturity": 69.728, "architecture_confidence": 94.265, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.25, "rotation_up": 20.16, "upward_expansion": 54.28, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 41.12, "downward_expansion": 20.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.605334, 68.324364, 66.451334, 61.052968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 62.400002, "trend_reference": 55.021667, "distance_from_trend": 0.134099, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.131728, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.828211, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 19.725392, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.528662, "excess_performance": 0.571866, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.134099, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.167734, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.828211, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023508, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.197254, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032977, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.528662, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.295198, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46892321, "relative_activity": 1.317985, "balance": 1.295198, "dry_up": 1.29315, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.215668, "annualized_volatility": 0.811187, "from_high_reference": -0.323431, "from_low_reference": 1.045902 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.021667, "fair_value_reference": 34.131728, "structural_low": 34.209999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.073625, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": -0.08047, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.407293, "worst_return": -0.237694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.022395, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043017, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.267709, "worst_return": -0.278503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.101102, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.140517, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.309445, "worst_return": -0.250627, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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66.481571, 60.185892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 63.900002, "volume": 40974261, "typical_volume": 32976645.75, "trend": 54.543, "fair_value": 33.805252, "relative_strength": 28.945821, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.587391, "energy": 31.409163, "activity_lines": [ 72.214666, 74.140545, 67.043095, 60.811699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.450001, "volume": 38952100, "typical_volume": 34054503.35, "trend": 54.567333, "fair_value": 33.939515, "relative_strength": 0.532695, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.089188, "energy": 18.612269, "activity_lines": [ 63.651333, 70.035455, 66.206143, 60.547635 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.400002, "volume": 46892321, "typical_volume": 35578806.15, "trend": 55.021667, "fair_value": 34.131728, "relative_strength": 19.725392, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.319673, "energy": 25.962108, "activity_lines": [ 61.605334, 68.324364, 66.451334, 61.052968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }