{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "7b3512f3-31f9-46b4-84e9-a17f074283a5",
    "symbol": "HSPX",
    "name": "HSBC S&P 500 UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "EBS",
    "country": "CH",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^SSMI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -36.675,
    "architecture_energy": 55.033,
    "architecture_maturity": 34.062,
    "architecture_confidence": 91.086,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 25.09,
        "rotation_up": 20.08,
        "upward_expansion": 14.33,
        "deceleration": 58.17,
        "rotation_down": 59.81,
        "downward_expansion": 85.33
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        68.224732,
        68.234971,
        68.313229,
        68.34775
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 68.449997,
    "trend_reference": 68.36154,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.001294,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 58.313431,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.173829,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -9.082927,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.0,
    "excess_performance": -0.082883,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.001294,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.001318,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.173829,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.04382,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.090829,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.090378,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.0,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": null,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 0,
      "relative_activity": null,
      "balance": null,
      "dry_up": null,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.000759,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.009897,
      "from_high_reference": -0.015702,
      "from_low_reference": 0.070896
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 68.36154,
      "fair_value_reference": 58.313431,
      "structural_low": 68.112099,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.001873,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.004758,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.048574,
        "worst_return": -0.102221,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.039803,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.03016,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.12077,
        "worst_return": -0.017137,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.128632,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.071607,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.15122,
        "worst_return": -0.03047,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.140096,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.081513,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.333872,
        "worst_return": 0.08286,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.012366,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.066787,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.025297,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.077979,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.050653,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.127163,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.014831,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.051724,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.078678,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-30",
        "end": "2026-04-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.004718,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-04-10",
        "end": "2026-05-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "start": "2026-07-03",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
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    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "trend": 68.353026,
        "fair_value": 57.551898,
        "relative_strength": -9.765619,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 68.352476,
        "fair_value": 57.704554,
        "relative_strength": -8.405495,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -67.65333,
        "energy": 88.675118,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 68.351926,
        "fair_value": 57.854853,
        "relative_strength": -8.92396,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -68.222716,
        "energy": 88.877892,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 68.112099,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 68.351377,
        "fair_value": 58.003077,
        "relative_strength": -8.61834,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -58.881847,
        "energy": 85.608644,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 68.112099,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 68.350827,
        "fair_value": 58.155204,
        "relative_strength": -8.509179,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -67.333313,
        "energy": 88.56662,
        "activity_lines": [
          68.112099,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 68.449997,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.0,
        "trend": 68.36154,
        "fair_value": 58.313431,
        "relative_strength": -9.082927,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -36.674931,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}