{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b3cbb8c-7b10-42d4-8957-227d4b96b7c5", "symbol": "200992", "name": "Shandong Zhonglu Oceanic Fisheries Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.044, "architecture_energy": 65.993, "architecture_maturity": 64.42, "architecture_confidence": 84.083, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 14.48, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 58.52, "rotation_down": 70.34, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.739333, 1.799636, 1.92819, 2.035376 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.76, "trend_reference": 2.172333, "distance_from_trend": -0.189811, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.147179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.18032, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.983896, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.27572, "excess_performance": -0.28312, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189811, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076258, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.18032, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192271, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.259839, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015914, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.27572, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.155773, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 432700, "relative_activity": 0.884168, "balance": 0.155773, "dry_up": 1.482365, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069493, "annualized_volatility": 0.195056, "from_high_reference": -0.309804, "from_low_reference": 0.189189 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.172333, "fair_value_reference": 2.147179, "structural_low": 1.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.008127, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.53125, "median_excess_return": -0.014588, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.17284, "worst_return": -0.172131, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.045226, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.032476, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.604938, "worst_return": -0.219608, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.029513, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.084506, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.436464, "worst_return": -0.254682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.031716, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.11523, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.198895, "worst_return": -0.322097, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099099, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.18593, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074534, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048035, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.110599, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068085, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00823, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.081967, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.214286, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 2.55, "volume": 800900, "typical_volume": 374499.45, "trend": 2.633, "fair_value": 2.917308, "relative_strength": -2.261507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.852353, "energy": 95.122913, "activity_lines": [ 1.828, 1.915818, 2.03719, 2.130194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.64, "volume": 1533800, "typical_volume": 528616.55, "trend": 2.211667, "fair_value": 2.156538, "relative_strength": -29.828459, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.581656, "energy": 94.532857, "activity_lines": [ 1.749333, 1.853636, 1.98919, 2.091763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.77, "volume": 750000, "typical_volume": 502201.85, "trend": 2.192333, "fair_value": 2.152308, "relative_strength": -22.430983, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.822552, "energy": 67.3556, "activity_lines": [ 1.74, 1.824545, 1.957524, 2.063269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.76, "volume": 432700, "typical_volume": 489386.85, "trend": 2.172333, "fair_value": 2.147179, "relative_strength": -25.983896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.043586, "energy": 65.992521, "activity_lines": [ 1.739333, 1.799636, 1.92819, 2.035376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }