{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b3d5814-f1b9-4937-ab7f-29814115fede", "symbol": "SKWD", "name": "Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.388, "architecture_energy": 65.123, "architecture_maturity": 47.218, "architecture_confidence": 81.389, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.89, "rotation_up": 71.72, "upward_expansion": 86.26, "deceleration": 63.35, "rotation_down": 16.45, "downward_expansion": 10.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.152667, 59.491636, 54.712667, 52.078559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 63.67, "trend_reference": 49.254333, "distance_from_trend": 0.292678, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.904551, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.450191, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.444317, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.447704, "excess_performance": 0.26025, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.292678, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05921, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.450191, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.32273, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.144443, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.363298, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.447704, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.657354, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2467531, "relative_activity": 1.068823, "balance": 1.657354, "dry_up": 1.065086, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073363, "annualized_volatility": 0.361955, "from_high_reference": -0.03075, "from_low_reference": 0.568227 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.254333, "fair_value_reference": 43.904551, "structural_low": 40.6, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.011829, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.021173, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.176884, "worst_return": -0.119608, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.013272, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.059956, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.112242, "worst_return": -0.001537, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.008566, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.229531, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.127004, "worst_return": -0.109873, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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49.10619, 48.051161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 59.34, "volume": 3181638, "typical_volume": 2407404.6, "trend": 47.753333, "fair_value": 42.97109, "relative_strength": 5.905188, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.915901, "energy": 90.956638, "activity_lines": [ 58.074667, 53.841091, 50.234857, 48.819398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 59.21, "volume": 3075885, "typical_volume": 2391952.95, "trend": 48.022667, "fair_value": 43.190833, "relative_strength": 10.579961, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.815914, "energy": 88.498323, "activity_lines": [ 59.107333, 55.319455, 51.29181, 49.558538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.46, "volume": 2052552, "typical_volume": 2334893.75, "trend": 48.309667, "fair_value": 43.422179, "relative_strength": 14.853877, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.757521, "energy": 87.481707, "activity_lines": [ 59.946, 56.797455, 52.407143, 50.360946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.95, "volume": 2239648, "typical_volume": 2338222.85, "trend": 48.687333, "fair_value": 43.655449, "relative_strength": 13.329545, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.033402, "energy": 61.479939, "activity_lines": [ 59.954667, 57.92, 53.417952, 51.111935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.67, "volume": 2467531, "typical_volume": 2308642.65, "trend": 49.254333, "fair_value": 43.904551, "relative_strength": 14.444317, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.387604, "energy": 65.122593, "activity_lines": [ 61.152667, 59.491636, 54.712667, 52.078559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }