{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b3dd5d5-4549-4c7f-9177-3c80e340bcd2", "symbol": "NORION", "name": "Norion Bank AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 76.569, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 40.074, "architecture_energy": 19.726, "architecture_maturity": 30.472, "architecture_confidence": 79.934, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.81, "rotation_up": 33.26, "upward_expansion": 34.41, "deceleration": 71.03, "rotation_down": 37.93, "downward_expansion": 22.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.453332, 60.236363, 58.791904, 58.255698 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 66.5, "trend_reference": 58.625, "distance_from_trend": 0.134328, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 48.543494, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.369906, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.706191, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.127119, "excess_performance": 0.065624, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.134328, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039748, "read": "Falling" 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46.700001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.0174, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009649, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.16861, "worst_return": -0.154867, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.046886, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.00197, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.130488, "worst_return": -0.224189, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.038186, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.034634, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.690244, "worst_return": -0.135693, "sufficient": false }, 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55.522727, 56.022143, 58.02914 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 60.5, "volume": 1216215, "typical_volume": 2358286.1, "trend": 60.585, "fair_value": 47.106635, "relative_strength": -10.871042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.08654, "energy": 17.90057, "activity_lines": [ 58.323333, 56.418182, 56.319524, 58.007312 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 62.0, "volume": 1822495, "typical_volume": 2429702.8, "trend": 60.485, "fair_value": 47.313365, "relative_strength": -10.561072, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.240148, "energy": 25.788633, "activity_lines": [ 60.093333, 57.502727, 56.79119, 58.098602 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 60.599998, "volume": 254230, "typical_volume": 2373057.75, "trend": 60.358333, "fair_value": 47.514968, "relative_strength": -11.828055, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.434542, "energy": 33.869973, "activity_lines": [ 60.539999, 58.254545, 57.157142, 58.106021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 60.799999, "volume": 203039, "typical_volume": 2348331.8, "trend": 60.141666, "fair_value": 47.708558, "relative_strength": -13.946242, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.391437, "energy": 41.556965, "activity_lines": [ 60.813332, 59.049999, 57.534523, 58.134516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 63.299999, "volume": 1378360, "typical_volume": 2394343.75, "trend": 59.965, "fair_value": 47.901506, "relative_strength": -8.401268, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.508183, "energy": 50.271773, "activity_lines": [ 61.733332, 60.16909, 58.130476, 58.338279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 54.599998, "volume": 3814879, "typical_volume": 2556895.2, "trend": 59.385, "fair_value": 48.02875, "relative_strength": -19.837414, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.474119, "energy": 12.271042, "activity_lines": [ 59.453332, 59.511817, 57.876904, 57.99215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.799999, "volume": 1262084, "typical_volume": 2595306.2, "trend": 58.865, "fair_value": 48.165289, "relative_strength": -18.995113, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.432931, "energy": 12.117874, "activity_lines": [ 57.966665, 59.025453, 57.750476, 57.76086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.599998, "volume": 1432706, "typical_volume": 2637630.7, "trend": 58.565, "fair_value": 48.329712, "relative_strength": -15.676879, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.319611, "energy": 8.712923, "activity_lines": [ 57.826665, 58.927271, 57.901666, 57.743763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.5, "volume": 2865958, "typical_volume": 2758189.85, "trend": 58.625, "fair_value": 48.543494, "relative_strength": -5.706191, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.073788, "energy": 19.725999, "activity_lines": [ 60.453332, 60.236363, 58.791904, 58.255698 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }