{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b443e1c-3b73-410b-82ca-e584fb9fa9ea", "symbol": "600966", "name": "Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.583, "architecture_energy": 62.647, "architecture_maturity": 64.438, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.61, "rotation_up": 26.41, "upward_expansion": 11.94, "deceleration": 60.01, "rotation_down": 55.87, "downward_expansion": 85.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.766667, 4.843982, 5.259948, 5.720665 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.85, "trend_reference": 6.274533, "distance_from_trend": -0.227034, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.460317, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.111773, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.84751, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.349866, "excess_performance": -0.306662, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.227034, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053329, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.111773, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.253255, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178475, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183889, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.349866, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.297912, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66232802, "relative_activity": 1.068887, "balance": 0.297912, "dry_up": 1.263768, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089846, "annualized_volatility": 0.451017, "from_high_reference": -0.459911, "from_low_reference": 0.107306 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.274533, "fair_value_reference": 5.460317, "structural_low": 4.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.001528, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007077, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.241193, "worst_return": -0.207589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.023518, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.006826, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.219067, "worst_return": -0.263969, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.041989, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.061901, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.218886, "worst_return": -0.283237, "sufficient": true }, { 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-21.735308, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.924126, "energy": 85.250538, "activity_lines": [ 4.695959, 4.938382, 5.440481, 5.91269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.92, "volume": 67794069, "typical_volume": 65056364.35, "trend": 6.340533, "fair_value": 5.46975, "relative_strength": -14.508511, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.970504, "energy": 65.380995, "activity_lines": [ 4.745081, 4.888818, 5.345024, 5.816828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.85, "volume": 66232802, "typical_volume": 61964245.0, "trend": 6.274533, "fair_value": 5.460317, "relative_strength": -17.84751, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.583324, "energy": 62.646542, "activity_lines": [ 4.766667, 4.843982, 5.259948, 5.720665 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }