{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b4824ce-55f8-40c8-98dc-606ac2c33718", "symbol": "A1RG34", "name": "argenx SE", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.508, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.046, "architecture_energy": 30.306, "architecture_maturity": 56.827, "architecture_confidence": 82.187, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.56, "rotation_up": 30.82, "upward_expansion": 65.38, "deceleration": 87.92, "rotation_down": 27.42, "downward_expansion": 17.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 179.336666, 181.141819, 175.139, 170.805978 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 180.179993, "trend_reference": 168.163666, "distance_from_trend": 0.071456, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 131.018589, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.375225, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.154928, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.008113, "excess_performance": 0.065161, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071456, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018618, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.375225, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118209, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.011549, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.188073, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008113, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.96115, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 840, "relative_activity": 2.223104, "balance": 0.96115, "dry_up": 0.74699, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043388, "annualized_volatility": 0.387522, "from_high_reference": -0.1, "from_low_reference": 0.303951 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 168.163666, "fair_value_reference": 131.018589, "structural_low": 143.220001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.011532, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.037007, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.092114, "worst_return": -0.13277, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.09921, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.191073, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.029297, "worst_return": -0.194161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.045263, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.069433, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.128679, "worst_return": -0.020237, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018219, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.162848, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010009, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": 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"2026-06-19", "close": 179.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 409.4, "trend": 169.890666, "fair_value": 126.352243, "relative_strength": 4.125294, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.916199, "energy": 70.58036, "activity_lines": [ 174.348667, 168.324363, 162.815951, 164.607741 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 184.830002, "volume": 290, "typical_volume": 409.9, "trend": 169.378332, "fair_value": 127.063012, "relative_strength": 4.00861, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.02031, "energy": 76.747078, "activity_lines": [ 179.047335, 171.89, 164.963523, 165.571569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 197.600006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 330.95, "trend": 169.291666, "fair_value": 127.855641, "relative_strength": 9.940518, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 65.291526, "energy": 86.997598, "activity_lines": [ 186.36667, 177.500365, 168.298238, 167.392322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 180.309998, "volume": 1038, "typical_volume": 368.85, "trend": 168.861, "fair_value": 128.530512, "relative_strength": -1.879819, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.774846, "energy": 73.50665, "activity_lines": [ 185.969335, 179.232546, 169.877476, 168.103182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 177.0, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 354.85, "trend": 168.452333, "fair_value": 129.141089, "relative_strength": -1.523249, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.176083, "energy": 69.145317, "activity_lines": [ 183.213334, 179.938001, 171.125809, 168.628279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 177.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 325.55, "trend": 168.080667, "fair_value": 129.751666, "relative_strength": -1.777383, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.325068, "energy": 55.928883, "activity_lines": [ 180.930667, 180.234365, 172.353, 169.179742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 180.960007, "volume": 288, "typical_volume": 335.9, "trend": 167.852667, "fair_value": 130.387628, "relative_strength": -1.600278, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.63399, "energy": 35.687272, "activity_lines": [ 180.134669, 180.946911, 173.852572, 170.010667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 180.179993, "volume": 840, "typical_volume": 377.85, "trend": 168.163666, "fair_value": 131.018589, "relative_strength": 1.154928, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.046492, "energy": 30.306211, "activity_lines": [ 179.336666, 181.141819, 175.139, 170.805978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }