{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b49ee75-fc20-4f3d-a16d-976e5934478a", "symbol": "ELV", "name": "Elevance Health, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.226, "architecture_energy": 28.62, "architecture_maturity": 65.548, "architecture_confidence": 76.815, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.45, "rotation_up": 25.64, "upward_expansion": 59.25, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 33.77, "downward_expansion": 20.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 334.853329, 340.67823, 335.559484, 321.454613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 340.299988, "trend_reference": 307.450022, "distance_from_trend": 0.106847, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 367.227905, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.073328, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.110609, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.221294, "excess_performance": 0.047047, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.106847, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062632, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.073328, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074654, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061106, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003132, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.221294, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 2.13555, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055144, "annualized_volatility": 0.366303, "from_high_reference": -0.100925, "from_low_reference": 0.413206 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 307.450022, "fair_value_reference": 367.227905, "structural_low": 240.800003, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.050493, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.098361, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.132581, "worst_return": -0.102449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.128286, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.141633, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.172208, "worst_return": -0.067406, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.085774, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030985, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.258178, "worst_return": -0.267402, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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342.908744, 335.851938, 310.924523, 303.222265 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 344.200012, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18.45, "trend": 298.560378, "fair_value": 369.290403, "relative_strength": -2.203207, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.175115, "energy": 66.068131, "activity_lines": [ 343.59482, 339.375701, 315.605968, 306.286099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 365.200012, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18.45, "trend": 301.336518, "fair_value": 369.205517, "relative_strength": 1.600953, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.625273, "energy": 71.027091, "activity_lines": [ 350.900187, 345.381497, 321.975216, 310.58543 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 368.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 17.9, "trend": 303.434752, "fair_value": 369.187341, "relative_strength": 3.907165, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.788708, "energy": 70.764259, "activity_lines": [ 356.973338, 350.576522, 328.241965, 314.8863 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 321.399994, "volume": 92, "typical_volume": 20.75, "trend": 304.419888, "fair_value": 368.626638, "relative_strength": -7.447919, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.87496, "energy": 51.859971, "activity_lines": [ 346.760002, 346.382253, 329.6867, 316.045348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 331.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 19.1, "trend": 305.807892, "fair_value": 368.155059, "relative_strength": -5.822633, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.34436, "energy": 40.773508, "activity_lines": [ 341.446667, 343.942387, 331.839121, 317.792452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 329.0, "volume": 75, "typical_volume": 19.55, "trend": 306.728597, "fair_value": 367.679646, "relative_strength": -6.492435, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.117389, "energy": 25.646905, "activity_lines": [ 335.76, 341.19677, 333.338589, 319.288717 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 340.299988, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 19.55, "trend": 307.450022, "fair_value": 367.227905, "relative_strength": -6.110609, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.22649, "energy": 28.619651, "activity_lines": [ 334.853329, 340.67823, 335.559484, 321.454613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }