{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7b5057e3-c37b-4b0b-8888-d054cfcca756", "symbol": "BRD", "name": "Sapphire Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 61.709, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.576, "architecture_energy": 23.913, "architecture_maturity": 23.921, "architecture_confidence": 54.687, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.66, "rotation_up": 19.49, "upward_expansion": 13.26, "deceleration": 62.69, "rotation_down": 42.34, "downward_expansion": 63.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.045933, 0.045764, 0.046967, 0.047318 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.047, "trend_reference": 0.0479, "distance_from_trend": -0.018789, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.045519, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.032531, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.623238, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.021739, "excess_performance": -0.133096, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018789, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008966, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.032531, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030465, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.166232, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140868, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.021739, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.360943, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52700, "relative_activity": 0.060023, "balance": 9.360943, "dry_up": 0.098007, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065466, "annualized_volatility": 0.33831, "from_high_reference": -0.241935, "from_low_reference": 0.119048 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0479, "fair_value_reference": 0.045519, "structural_low": 0.042, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.015388, "positive_rate": 0.37931, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.020157, "regime_survival": 0.862069, "best_return": 0.71875, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.048372, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.058843, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.459459, "worst_return": -0.22501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.013228, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.051375, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.361111, "worst_return": -0.333339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020833, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.021277, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.951645, "energy": 64.272961, "activity_lines": [ 0.045133, 0.046418, 0.0474, 0.047742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.046, "volume": 48600, "typical_volume": 878640.0, "trend": 0.048267, "fair_value": 0.045647, "relative_strength": -17.773101, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.63495, "energy": 49.325948, "activity_lines": [ 0.045333, 0.046091, 0.047248, 0.047598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.045, "volume": 65300, "typical_volume": 875375.0, "trend": 0.048067, "fair_value": 0.045583, "relative_strength": -19.65937, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.884102, "energy": 34.511076, "activity_lines": [ 0.045333, 0.045673, 0.047005, 0.047387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.047, "volume": 52700, "typical_volume": 878000.0, "trend": 0.0479, "fair_value": 0.045519, "relative_strength": -16.623238, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.57614, "energy": 23.913443, "activity_lines": [ 0.045933, 0.045764, 0.046967, 0.047318 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }